Key Highlights
- Glassnode says long-term Bitcoin holders have resumed accumulation after months of distribution.
- Multiple wallet cohorts are steadily buying Bitcoin during the recent correction.
- More Bitcoin is now held at a loss than at a profit, signaling widespread investor stress.
Bitcoin (BTC) may still be trading under pressure, but on-chain data suggests experienced investors are beginning to buy the dip, according to the blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.
In a report published on Wednesday, Glassnode said several on-chain indicators suggest Bitcoin may be entering the early stages of a market bottom, even as institutional investors continue withdrawing capital from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
According to the report, Bitcoin’s decline below $60,000 has triggered renewed accumulation by long-term holders and patient buyers, signaling growing conviction despite weak price action. Glassnode noted that while buying remains modest compared to previous bull markets, the shift marks a behavioral change after months of net distribution.
Accumulation expands across multiple investor groups
Beyond long-term holders, Glassnode said buying activity has broadened across multiple wallet sizes. Its Accumulation Trend Score shows that smaller retail wallets holding less than one Bitcoin, as well as addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, have become some of the strongest accumulators during the correction.
Larger holders have also turned into net buyers, though with less intensity than earlier in the cycle.
According to Glassnode, synchronized accumulation across multiple investor groups often provides the foundation for longer-term recoveries. The report said Bitcoin supply is increasingly moving from shorter-term investors to investors with longer investment horizons.
Most Bitcoin holders are now underwater
Glassnode highlighted another notable milestone. For the first time since the current bull cycle began, more Bitcoin is now held at a loss than at a profit.
According to the report:
- 10.83 million BTC are currently held at a loss.
- 9.22 million BTC remain in profit.
The firm said this reflects one of the sharpest declines in investor profitability during the current cycle. Historically, similar periods have coincided with elevated market stress but have also marked phases where long-term investors gradually accumulate coins sold by short-term participants.
Institutional demand remains weak
While on-chain investors appear confident, institutional sentiment tells a different story. Glassnode noted that U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue experiencing sustained net outflows, reflecting ongoing institutional de-risking. The report said capital continues leaving ETF products despite Bitcoin’s correction, creating a divergence between patient on-chain buyers and more cautious institutional investors.
“Institutional demand has continued to deteriorate, with the 7-day moving average of U.S. Spot ETF net flows falling deeper into negative territory,” the report noted.
Glassnode said stabilization in ETF flows could provide a signal that broader institutional demand is improving.
Coinbase order book shows buyers waiting
Despite ETF weakness, Glassnode also pointed to changes in exchange liquidity. According to the report, Coinbase’s order book has become increasingly bid-heavy, suggesting institutions are patiently rebuilding positions rather than chasing prices higher.
Instead of aggressively buying market orders, large investors appear to be providing liquidity beneath current prices. Glassnode believes this behavior aligns with accumulation rather than panic buying.
Derivatives traders lean bullish while options stay defensive
Glassnode also examined derivatives positioning. According to the report, traders on Hyperliquid have continued increasing leveraged long exposure even as Bitcoin declined. The analytics firm warned that this creates two possible outcomes:
- A sharp rebound if buyers regain momentum.
- Another liquidation-driven decline if support breaks.
Meanwhile, the options market remains cautious. Glassnode said Bitcoin’s Put/Call Volume Ratio has climbed to its highest level in over a year, indicating traders are paying increasingly higher premiums for downside protection.
At the same time, dealer positioning has shifted toward positive gamma, meaning hedging activity could help dampen volatility and encourage price stabilization around current levels.
Put/Call Ratio | Source: Glassnode
Macro conditions continue to pressure Bitcoin
Glassnode attributed much of Bitcoin’s recent weakness to the broader macroeconomic environment. The report said the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting reinforced expectations that interest rates are likely to remain elevated for longer, with markets now largely pushing potential rate cuts into 2027.
The firm said higher Treasury yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and tighter financial conditions have continued to weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Glassnode added that ETF outflows appear to reflect institutional de-risking rather than panic selling.
Early signs of a bottom, but not confirmation yet
Although several indicators are improving, Glassnode cautioned that the market may not have reached a definitive bottom. The firm noted that implied volatility has begun rising from historically low levels, a pattern often associated with the early stages of bottom formation.
However, previous market cycles have frequently experienced one final capitulation event before establishing durable lows. Summarizing its outlook, Glassnode said Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from a distribution phase toward accumulation, but investors should remain prepared for additional volatility.
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