Key Highlights
- US-linked wallets traded about $571 million on Polymarket, remaining the largest political trading group despite US geoblocking.
- Nearly 46% of US political trading volume focused on geopolitical markets, compared with 36% across the broader platform.
- US traders showed no meaningful edge, backing winning outcomes 81.9% of the time versus 80.3% for others.
US-linked wallets remain the largest national group trading political markets on Polymarket despite the platform’s restrictions on American users, according to new research from blockchain analytics firm Allium.
The report found that US-linked wallets accounted for the largest share of political prediction market activity by trading volume over the past 12 months, even though Polymarket blocks US users through IP-based geofencing.
According to Allium, many Americans continue accessing the platform because trading only requires a crypto wallet, stablecoins and, in many cases, a virtual private network (VPN). “Blocking access did not end US participation, it made the US the largest single political market on Polymarket by volume. The demand is still there, now offshore and beyond US oversight,” the report said.
The dataset covers roughly 6% of wallets active in Polymarket’s political markets, meaning the figures should be viewed as directional rather than precise.
US leads political trading
According to the report, US-linked wallets traded approximately $571 million in political-market notional volume, making the United States the largest national market by contracts traded. The report also identified around 3,776 US-linked wallets, roughly four times as many as the next-largest country in its dataset.
Hong Kong ranked second with about $422 million in notional volume but led in total cash deployed at roughly $324 million, reflecting larger average position sizes.
Allium attributed wallets to countries based on onchain behavior rather than IP addresses, allowing it to identify likely US users even when they accessed the platform through VPNs. The findings suggest that geoblocking has not eliminated US participation in offshore prediction markets, but instead shifted activity outside domestic regulatory oversight.
Geopolitics attracts US users
The research found that US traders concentrate more heavily on geopolitical events than the broader Polymarket user base.
Nearly 46% of US political-market notional volume was tied to geopolitical markets, compared with 36% across the platform overall. By contrast, election-related contracts represented 16% of US trading activity, versus 32% for the wider market.
Five of the 12 largest US political markets over the past year focused on the Iran conflict, while the biggest single US market by trading volume centered on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit.
Allium said US users continue accessing Polymarket for two main reasons. The platform operates on crypto rails, allowing users to trade directly with a crypto wallet and stablecoins without opening a traditional account or completing bank-based onboarding.
It also offers a wider range of markets than regulated US platforms, including foreign conflicts, geopolitical events and other international topics that are generally unavailable on US-regulated prediction markets.
“The US concentrates on the foreign-conflict markets regulated US venues do not list, more than the global crowd does. Its demand tilts toward exactly what US rules restrict,” the report said.
No clear insider advantage
Despite taking stronger positions on some politically sensitive markets, US traders did not perform better than the rest of the market once those events were resolved.
Across resolved political markets, US wallets backed the winning outcome 81.9% of the time, compared with 80.3% for traders from other countries. The report also found broadly similar holding returns, with US wallets posting 3.8% compared with 2.4% for the rest of the market.
The widest divergence in positioning occurred in a market related to a potential US invasion of Iran, where 53% of US buying volume favored the “Yes” outcome, compared with 26% among non-US traders. However, Allium said that disagreement did not translate into a measurable performance advantage across resolved markets.
“The usual concern with a domestic crowd is informed advantage, and the data shows no such edge on the largest, most-traded markets. These are confident speculators in aggregate, though individual insiders cannot be ruled out,” the report said.
Broader regulatory questions
The report comes as Polymarket faces growing regulatory pressure in the United States.
Polymarket agreed to stop serving US customers in 2022 as part of a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Since then, the platform has blocked US IP addresses, although researchers say some users continue accessing it through VPNs.
More recently, Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman sued Polymarket, Kalshi and sweepstakes operator VGW, alleging they offered unlicensed betting products in the state. Separately, Polymarket said KYC is only required for a limited beta test, denying reports it will apply across its main platform.
Against that backdrop, Allium said Polymarket’s broader market offering helps explain why Americans continue using the offshore platform despite its restrictions.
“Americans bet on politics in size even while blocked from Polymarket, and they want exactly the markets US rules restrict most: foreign conflict and geopolitics,” the report said.
The report argued that regulators now face a broader policy question. “So the choice is to supervise that demand on a regulated US venue or leave it offshore, beyond reach but fully visible onchain,” it said.
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