Key Highlights
- Arkham has launched a new Prediction Market Elo ranking system for Polymarket traders.
- The ratings measure prediction accuracy using an Elo/MMR-style scoring model.
- The system rewards consistent forecasting rather than trade size or total profits.
Blockchain intelligence platform Arkham has introduced a new Prediction Market Elo system designed to rank Polymarket traders based on the consistency and accuracy of their predictions rather than the size of their winnings.
In an X post on Monday, Arkham said the feature is designed to help users identify consistently successful Polymarket traders by introducing prediction market performance ratings (Elo).
The feature, now live on Arkham Intel, applies an Elo/MMR-style rating system similar to those used in competitive gaming and chess to help users identify the most reliable prediction market participants.
How Arkham’s Elo system works
According to Arkham, the new rating system evaluates traders solely on the accuracy of their predictions. Every correct prediction increases a trader’s Elo score relative to other market participants, with the system rewarding consistent forecasting over time.
The rating is based on an Elo/MMR-style system that measures traders by the accuracy of their predictions. The company added that successful predictions made at lower odds yield larger rating improvements than those made at higher odds, allowing the rankings to better reflect long-term forecasting skill.
Why trade size doesn’t matter
Unlike traditional profit leaderboards, Arkham’s Elo system does not consider how much money a trader wagers. Instead, the rankings focus entirely on prediction quality. “Ratings do not take bet sizing into account, so smaller but more accurate traders will rate higher than larger bettors with a lower win-rate,” the team wrote
This approach allows traders with modest portfolios but consistently accurate predictions to outrank high-volume traders whose profits may rely more on larger position sizes than superior forecasting.
Top accuracy and top profit traders differ
Arkham revealed that the highest-rated trader by Elo is “GardenerCx,” whose strategy primarily focuses on trading crypto price direction in Polymarket’s short-term five-minute markets. Meanwhile, the trader with the highest realized profits tells a different story.
According to Arkham, the highest PnL trader is ‘swisstony,’ a prolific sports bettor with $11.4 million in PnL. However, despite generating millions in profits, Arkham noted that Swisstony’s prediction accuracy is lower than the platform’s top-ranked forecasters.
“Despite his high sizing and PnL, his trades are less consistently profitable, and his win rate is slightly lower at 52.9%. This makes his Elo 1514.”
The comparison highlights the distinction between profitability and predictive consistency, with Arkham positioning Elo as a metric that measures forecasting ability rather than financial returns.
Expanding prediction market analytics
The launch comes as prediction markets continue gaining traction across the crypto industry, with both crypto-native platforms and traditional companies expanding into the space.
In recent months, traditional betting giant DraftKings has also entered the race. Last week, the company launched its own prediction market exchange, DraftKings Exchange (DKeX), while ending its previous relationship with CME. DraftKings said owning its own prediction market infrastructure would allow it to improve products, reduce operating costs, and deliver a better customer experience.
Against this backdrop, Arkham’s latest release focuses on a different layer of the ecosystem. Rather than launching another prediction platform, the company is introducing performance analytics that help users identify consistently successful traders based on forecasting accuracy rather than profit alone.
Arkham said the new ratings are now available through its prediction market analytics dashboard, giving users additional insight into trader performance beyond raw profit-and-loss figures.
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