Key Highlights
- CryptoQuant’s BTC Risk Index moved above +2, signaling a high-volatility regime.
- Bitcoin dipped below the long-term holder cost basis (~$65.7K), a key cycle stress marker.
- Rising exchange balances and “supply in profit” compression suggest downside risk isn’t cleared yet.
Bitcoin continues trading around the $68,000 region, with markets attempting to stabilize after recent downside pressure. While price action has slowed, on-chain and institutional flow data suggest the market may still be navigating a broader reset phase rather than confirming a definitive cycle bottom.
The renewed discussion comes as multiple datasets, including CryptoQuant risk metrics, ETF flow trends, and Glassnode holder behavior, present a mixed picture between improving demand and persistent structural stress.
CryptoQuant Risk Index signals high-volatility regime
The latest charts circulating among traders show CryptoQuant’s BTC Risk Index pushing above the +2 line, a threshold that has historically aligned with high volatility and deeper drawdowns before the market stabilizes.
In the same snapshot, Bitcoin’s average price was tracked around the $68K zone, reflecting continued uncertainty after recent downside tests.
While the Risk Index is not a precise “bottom” trigger, the move above +2 signals that the market is still trading in a risk-heavy regime, where sharp swings and failed rallies are common.
ETF inflows provide support but not confirmation
At the same time, institutional demand has shown signs of returning. Data tracked by Farside Investors shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $506.6 million in net inflows on February 25, followed by another ~$254 million in inflows on February 26, led primarily by BlackRock’s IBIT while FBTC saw outflows.
The rebound marks the strongest inflow stretch in roughly three weeks, indicating dip-buying interest from institutional participants. However, ETF demand alone has historically acted as price support rather than a standalone confirmation of cycle bottoms when on-chain positioning remains weak.
Long-Term holders back in focus after Cost Basis Break
Another key signal came from the long-term holder side. Glassnode’s latest snapshot shows Bitcoin exchange balances around 3,012,700 BTC as of February 26, a level traders watch as a proxy for potential liquid supply.
At the same time, Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply ticked up to ~14.44M BTC , but the LTH net position change was still negative -71.6K BTC, suggesting that while the long-term cohort remains large, distribution hasn’t fully flipped into clear net accumulation yet.
Moreover, Bitcoin has recently traded below the Long-Term Holder (LTH) True Cost Basis near $65.7K, a level used by market participants to gauge whether experienced holders are sitting in profit or loss.
Historically, sustained trading below this band has been associated with a longer digestion phase, renewed distribution pressure, and delayed bottom formation. That doesn’t confirm a deeper crash, but it does raise the odds that the market may need more time before it can build a durable base.
The $60K–$70K band is the market’s “Make-or-Break” demand zone
One reason downside calls haven’t disappeared: the market is leaning heavily on the $60,000–$70,000 band. Glassnode data shows ~429,000 BTC accumulated in that range, building a thick cost-basis cluster that can act as support but also becomes a pressure point if broken.
In simple words, this range now acts as both structural support and a risk zone. Holding above it could allow consolidation to continue, while a sustained breakdown may force a reassessment of downside expectations as recently accumulated positions come under pressure.
Losses are rising, accumulation conviction still weak
In its latest Week On-Chain readout, Glassnode describes Bitcoin as still range-bound between $60K and $70K, with conditions historically consistent with mid-to-late bear market phases.
Two datapoints stood out for the “bottom or pause” debate:
- Nearly ~9.2M BTC held at a loss (a sign stress is spreading across cohorts).
- Accumulation Trend Score below 0.5, which Glassnode interprets as limited conviction from larger entities—i.e., not the kind of aggressive accumulation that tends to mark cleaner cycle lows.
Glassnode also flags the 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio below 1.0, indicating an excess-loss regime where realized losses outweigh realized profits—another sign the market is still repairing liquidity.
On profitability, Glassnode’s Supply in Profit metric sat around ~11.07M BTC as of February 26, reflecting how much circulating supply is still “green” at current prices. When this compresses, it typically means the market is spending more time digesting losses and less time trending cleanly.
Post-Halving cycle models suggest late-2026 bottom
CryptoQuant’s cycle comparison model indicates that Bitcoin bottoms typically take significant time to form after halving events.
Historical traces imply:
- 2012 cycle timing → June 2026 equivalent window
- 2016 cycle timing → September 2026
- 2020 cycle timing → October 2026
This places the broader bottoming range between June and December 2026, with historical clustering around September–November, analysts noted.
What to watch next
From here, the “bottom vs pause” question likely comes down to whether Bitcoin can reclaim key structural levels while on-chain risk begins to ease.
Metrics to track:
- Whether the CryptoQuant Risk Index cools back below +2
- Continuation of ETF inflows beyond short-term rebounds
- Signs of stronger accumulation through improving Glassnode trend scores and declining exchange balances?
Until those conditions improve, the data suggests Bitcoin may still be in a high-volatility reset phase, keeping the cycle bottom uncertain.
Also Read: Bitcoin ETFs Gain $1B in 3 Days: Indicators Leaning on ‘Bottom Setup’
