Looking strong on the surface, Bitcoin price is currently hovering around $108K, slightly down after rising above $110K this week. It has spiked over 50% since November’s US election. While many traders see the climb as proof of long-term price targets, not everyone is convinced the rally is safe.
Edward Farina, a crypto analyst followed by over 167,000 people on X, says Bitcoin could drop more than eighty percent in a fast crash. He argues the market is overheating and driven by a handful of whales, not by healthy and broad buying.
In his thread, Farina wrote, “Whenever this BTC crash happens it will be fast and brutal.” He claims on-chain data show early-era wallets sending coins to exchanges every time price nears $110,000. Each sell wave, he says, knocked Bitcoin back four to eight percent within days.
Market data from CoinMarketCap show 24-hour spot volume near $41 billion, still lower than the levels seen during Bitcoin’s previous all-time high in May. According to Farina, this low volume is a major concern. He argues that the current rally is being driven by a small group of whales, not widespread investor demand, and that this makes the market fragile.
Supporting the claim, Coinbase order book data also show fewer small bids compared with early March levels. Without strong demand from new buyers, a coordinated sell-off by large holders could push the price through support very quickly.
Farina also points to slowing US growth. Although inflation has cooled to 2.4% and unemployment rose to 4.1% in June, Bitcoin added nearly thirty percent in the second quarter. He believes the macro picture does not justify such gains. He says investors seeking lower-risk exposure should have bought years ago, when the halving cycle and cheap prices lined up.
Whether the warning plays out soon or later, the analyst’s message is clear: today’s price action may rest on weak foundations. If a sudden shock hits, he expects an eighty-percent slide that would cut Bitcoin back toward $20,000.
Other commentators disagree, but traders are watching the $110,000 ceiling and on-chain whale flows for clues. Farina thinks a black swan event, such as trouble at a large stable-coin issuer, could start the fall.
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