Key Highlights
- Bitcoin bounced from the low $60K area to around $65K after a relief rally, but the recovery is still weak and not fully confirmed.
- The move was driven by cooler market fears from CPI data, falling oil prices, and a US–Iran ceasefire that improved risk sentiment.
- Winturmute warns that weak liquidity and ETF outflows could push Bitcoin back toward $50K–$60K if conditions worsen again.
Crypto market maker Wintermute says Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to recover, but the bigger picture still looks shaky, and the price could still fall back toward $60,000 if conditions turn weak again. This outlook comes as Bitcoin trades around $65,735, after dropping for four straight weeks. It recently touched this $60K level but later bounced from it and moved higher.
In a report published on Monday, Wintermute said the small recovery came during a relief rally, where traders briefly started buying again after fear in the market slowed down.
Inflation data that changed the mood
According to Wintermute, the recovery was driven by several macroeconomic developments that improved overall risk appetite. In the United States, May inflation (CPI) was reported at 4.2% compared to last year. This was the highest level since 2023, but it matched what experts expected, so it did not shock the market.
At the same time, “core inflation,” which removes food and energy prices, dropped to 2.9%. This was seen as a better signal because it suggests price pressure may be slowing down in important parts of the economy.
Another reason came from global politics. A ceasefire between the US and Iran has recently been confirmed, and the Strait of Hormuz was reopened. Following the news, oil prices dropped sharply, with Brent sliding from the low $110s to the high $80s, removing a major inflation risk from the market. Lower oil prices usually help reduce future inflation fears, and that makes investors more willing to take risks again.
Because of this, the market reacted in a “risk-on” way. This means investors moved back into riskier assets like stocks and crypto. For instance, Bitcoin increased by 6.79% in a week, and altcoins gained around 3.1%. Ethereum is also up 8.2% in a week.
Wintermute notes that the bounce looks more like relief trading rather than a strong structural uptrend.
Before this recovery, Bitcoin had already fallen more than 10% across the crypto market, with BTC dropping about 14% in a single week. The previous rally from the low $60K range to around $83K was described as losing momentum, with analysts calling it a “bear market fakeout” after the move failed to sustain strength. The latest drop was driven by a mix of inflation fears, strong US jobs data, and reduced appetite for risk across global markets.
ETF outflows and weak crypto liquidity
Wintermute also highlighted weakening capital flows into digital assets. ETF flows have recorded one of their longest outflow streaks since launch, while stablecoin inflows continue to weaken.
According to data from Farside investors, Bitcoin ETFs have been witnessing withdrawals over the last month, except for a few days on June 4 and June 12. In fact, they have seen outflows worth about $2.10 billion in a month. Ethereum ETF also witnessed the same thing, with only a few inflows on June 4 and June 8.
In addition, digital asset treasury holdings have dropped significantly from earlier highs. According to the report, these channels are important because they have historically driven major crypto rallies, especially during the ETF-driven surge in early 2024.
“Don’t get chopped up,” the report states. It also reflects caution around chasing short-term moves in a volatile market. Winturmute also points out that positioning in derivatives has become lighter, showing that traders are avoiding large directional bets for now.
What traders are watching next
Looking ahead, attention is on the upcoming June 17 Federal Reserve meeting led by Warsh. Markets are waiting to see whether the Fed leans hawkish on headline inflation or focuses on easing pressure underneath. This decision is expected to set the tone for Bitcoin and other risk assets in the near term.
Wintermute says Bitcoin’s current zone still offers long-term interest, but warns that the price could revisit lower levels, potentially between $50K and $60K, if liquidity does not improve and selling pressure returns.
Also Read: Michael Saylor Explains How Bitcoin Could Reshape Global Finance
