The approval chances of a U.S.-based XRP exchange-traded fund have just taken a sharp hit. Traders on the prediction market Polymarket dropped their approval odds at 52% after being made aware that SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw plans to vote against it.
Following Crenshaw’s negative statement, there was a quick drop observed as suddenly from approval chances of 87%, it was below 55% in a short time. However the odds have climbed back up as at the press time the approval rating is 86%.
Back in June, the hype around XRP was extremely bullish as approval rating also touched 93% amid rumors of Blackrock’s involvement.
Crenshaw has been a vocal opponent of crypto-based ETFs for quite some time, and her ongoing opposition has unnerved markets, particularly after she cast a “no” vote for all 13 crypto ETF proposals in the latest SEC meeting. It is the lowest odds of approval of an XRP ETF since January.
Balchunas: “It’s an Overreaction”
In spite of the volatility in the market, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas claims there’s nothing to worry about. He holds a 95% chance of approval and is labeling the response an overcorrection.
Balchunas noted Crenshaw is usually the sole voice of dissent on crypto matters and is routinely outvoted by the other commissioners. On July 29, for example, she was the sole “no” vote on a slate of 13 crypto ETF approvals.
Global Demand for XRP ETFs Increasing
Despite the uncertainty in the U.S., momentum is shifting globally. Japan’s SBI Holdings, a close ally of Ripple, has already submitted an application for an ETF containing Bitcoin and XRP.
While Commissioner Crenshaw’s opposition introduces short-term ambiguity, the general trend at the SEC is still leaning toward increased ETF approval, according to experts.
With Ripple having met the agency’s listing requirements and international demand increasing, most are convinced the XRP ETF remains on track albeit with a few more twists and turns.
Also Read: Japan’s SBI Holdings Files to Launch Bitcoin, XRP and Gold ETFs
