Bitcoin is at a crossroads as the June 18, 2025, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the Federal Reserve approaches. As the world markets are on the edge and the cryptocurrency industry has shown increased volatility, the result of this meeting may determine the next big move of Bitcoin.
Before the meeting, the crypto market participants are looking skeptical as Bitcoin is down by almost 1%, currently trading at $105,273 with a market cap of $2.1 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap data. Now the million-dollar question is, will Bitcoin, the King of crypto, bust out in a new bullish trend, or will a bearish correction be on the cards?
There is a strong possibility that the FOMC will not change interest rates, continuing its hold on reductions in 2025. The current interest rates are likely to stay at 4.25% to 4.50% with only 0.1% probability of a 0.25% reduction, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. This stance comes amid a backdrop of continuing inflationary pressure and geopolitical uncertainty, such as persistent tensions in the Middle East and changes in U.S. political dynamics.
Despite the fact that both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) released for May were lower than expected, which means that inflation is control, the Fed is still wary. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is under scrutiny by market participants to see what language he uses to provide any indication of what the future monetary policy may be, with any subtle change causing a major response in risk assets such as Bitcoin.
According to private wealth manager Swissblock’s X post, Bitcoin has two key pressure-release valves onwards. The first is a de-escalation in geopolitical risk, and the second is Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. He added that if we receive a positive geopolitical headline, $BTC will move quickly, targeting bear liquidations. Moreover, if Powell adopts a dovish stance, that will provide extra fuel for the bulls. With negative funding, it’s the bears who are now overexposed.
A Look At Bitcoin Price On Technical charts
Bitcoin is trading at $105,277 and is sitting in a major triangular consolidation pattern that has been developing since the May 2025 highs of about $112,000. The price movement indicates a sequence of higher lows and lower highs forming a symmetrical triangle, which is at the verge of reaching its peak and therefore a breakout is imminent.
The technical arrangement shows several important resistance levels. The most critical one is the upper trendline of the triangle, which is also the psychological resistance of $112,000, coinciding with the recent all-time high. On the negative side, the immediate support is at the level of $100,000, then the support is stronger at the level of $93,082 and $90,655, which corresponds to the 200-day EMA level.
The RSI indicator at 53.04 suggests a neutral momentum but a value above 50 could suggest that BTC could inch closer to the overbought territory if RSI breaches 70. The uptrend in the longer term is still in place, with the 200-day moving average rising to around $93,086 providing dynamic support over the recent consolidation period.
A successful break above the triangle would aim at $115,000-$120,000. On the other hand, a breakdown would have Bitcoin price explore the range between $90,000 and $93,000 before encountering more solid buyers.
Bottom Line
The immediate future of Bitcoin depends on the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, and the cryptocurrency remains in a decisive triangular pattern around the level of 105,000. Technical indicators are neutral, and the Fed is unlikely to raise rates, so a dovish message by Powell would likely cause a bullish breakout to $115,000-$120,000. However, hawkish remarks can drive Bitcoin to critical support areas of $90,000-$93,000. The coming 48 hours will determine the future of Bitcoin.
Also Read: Veteran Trader Peter Brandt Gives Golden Advice As Bitcoin Nears ATH
