Bitcoin (BTC) is moving more closely with gold than at any point since 2020, strengthening the market debate over whether the cryptocurrency is increasingly behaving like a monetary hedge rather than simply another risk asset.
According to a Sept. 2 Bitwise CIO Memo, Bitcoin’s 90-day rolling correlation with spot gold climbed to its highest level in nearly six years by Aug. 31. The data, sourced by Bitwise from Bloomberg, covers the period from April 2015 through the end of August 2026.
The shift came during a volatile period for global bond markets, when Bitcoin and gold began rising together even as U.S. equities struggled.
Bitcoin and Gold Move Together During Bond Market Volatility
Bitwise linked the change to the market reaction surrounding rising long-term Treasury yields and the U.S. government’s decision to expand its longer-dated bond-buyback operations.
The U.S. Treasury announced on Aug. 19 that it would at least double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation starting Sept. 9.
Following that announcement, Bitcoin recorded a 22.4% weekly gain, its strongest since March 2024, while gold advanced roughly 5%, according to Bitwise. The two assets moved higher while stocks declined, pushing their three-month correlation sharply higher.
The Crypto Times previously covered Bitcoin’s response to the Treasury buyback expansion, when BTC accelerated from the mid-$60,000 range as long-term yields eased and liquidity expectations improved.
André Dragosch, Director and Head of Research Europe at Bitwise, said Bitcoin had recently started to look like “an amplified version of gold” during periods when macroeconomic forces and concerns over currency debasement become more prominent.
Correlation Returns to Levels Last Seen in 2020
The previous comparable Bitcoin-gold correlation reading occurred in 2020, when governments and central banks introduced large fiscal and monetary stimulus programs in response to the COVID-19 crisis.
Bitwise’s chart shows the latest 90-day correlation moving above the 0.5 region by the end of August. A positive correlation means the two assets have increasingly moved in the same direction, although correlation alone does not establish that the same investors or fundamental forces are driving both markets.
Bitcoin has also been moving in the opposite direction to the U.S. dollar. Bitwise said its 90-day BTC correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index remained significantly negative at the end of August, meaning periods of dollar weakness have recently coincided with stronger Bitcoin performance.
That combination has added weight to the so-called debasement trade, in which investors seek assets such as Bitcoin and gold when concerns over government debt, currencies or monetary policy rise.
The Crypto Times earlier reported that Bitcoin and gold ETF demand accelerated during the August rally as investors increased exposure to assets outside traditional government bonds.
Glassnode Warns Equity Decoupling May Be Temporary
The change does not necessarily mean Bitcoin has permanently stopped behaving like a risk asset.
In its Sept. 2 Week Onchain report, Glassnode found that Bitcoin’s rolling 30-session correlation with the S&P 500 fell toward zero during the August rally as BTC rose while U.S. equities remained comparatively flat.
However, Glassnode said similar episodes of sudden decorrelation during sovereign bond selloffs have historically been short-lived and can represent temporary market exhaustion rather than a lasting change in Bitcoin’s relationship with equities.
The distinction is important because the Bitwise and Glassnode figures measure different windows: Bitwise’s gold comparison uses a 90-day rolling correlation, while Glassnode’s latest equity analysis uses a 30-session correlation.
US Payrolls Could Test Bitcoin’s Macro Correlation
The next test for Bitcoin’s recent macro-driven trading pattern could come from Friday’s U.S. employment report, as traders assess what the data means for interest rates, Treasury yields and the dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.
Enmanuel Cardozo, Market Analyst at Brickken, told The Crypto Times that a moderately softer payroll report could ease some of the pressure coming from rates, Treasury yields and the dollar, potentially supporting liquidity-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin.
However, Cardozo cautioned that weaker employment data would not automatically be positive for BTC. “A sharp deterioration could raise broader concerns about the economy and initially push investors away from risk.”
On the other hand, a stronger payroll report, particularly alongside firm wage growth, could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy and put further near-term pressure on Bitcoin, he said.
Cardozo added that investors should look beyond the headline payroll figure to unemployment, wage growth and revisions to previous employment estimates. “Friday’s report will help shape expectations, but the inflation data released the following week will also matter before the Fed makes its decision.”
Bitcoin Returns Above $78,000
Bitcoin was trading around $78,778 at approximately 13:55 UTC on Sept. 3, according to CoinGecko data, up about 2.8% over 24 hours. BTC had traded between roughly $76,733 and $78,787 during the period.
Gold was also higher Thursday. Spot bullion traded around $4,425.83 per ounce at 10:46 UTC, up 0.9%, as the dollar and Treasury yields eased ahead of the U.S. payrolls report.
For now, the six-year-high correlation shows that Bitcoin and gold have responded increasingly similarly to recent macroeconomic shocks. Whether that relationship persists beyond the latest bond and dollar volatility will determine whether the move represents a broader change in Bitcoin’s cross-asset behavior or another temporary correlation spike.
Also Read: Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Ending? Willy Woo Points to a 6-8 Year Rhythm
