Key Highlights
- Bitcoin, the S&P 500 and gold posted strong weekly gains following weaker U.S. jobs data.
- The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, compared with expectations of 85,000 job additions.
- Treasury yields fell and the U.S. dollar weakened as traders increased bets on Fed rate cuts.
Bitcoin, gold and U.S. stocks rallied together this week after fresh economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates sooner than markets had anticipated.
According to a post by market intelligence platform Santiment on August 7, Bitcoin has gained 4.6% since Monday, while the S&P 500 is up 2.9% and gold has surged 7.5%, making it one of the strongest weeks this year for simultaneous gains across the three major asset classes.
The synchronized rally came after the latest U.S. employment report showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, sharply missing forecasts that had projected 85,000 new jobs.
Although weaker labor data typically signals economic slowdown, investors interpreted the report as increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will loosen monetary policy in the coming months.
Weak labor market shifts Fed expectations
Following the jobs report, traders sharply reduced expectations for further monetary tightening.
Treasury yields declined while the U.S. dollar weakened, creating a more supportive environment for assets that generally benefit from easier financial conditions.
Santiment noted that the disappointing employment figures have strengthened expectations for interest-rate relief.
The firm added that markets are responding more to the prospect of improving liquidity than to the negative headline employment number itself.
Liquidity outlook drives cross-market rally
The simultaneous gains across crypto, equities and precious metals reflect a broader macroeconomic theme rather than asset-specific catalysts.
Historically, expectations of lower interest rates tend to support risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies while also benefiting gold through lower real yields and a weaker dollar.
Santiment summarized the current market dynamic:
“Stocks like easier policy, gold likes weaker real-rate pressure, and Bitcoin likes liquidity hopes, but a shrinking workforce also means the rally still depends on inflation staying calm.”
The firm cautioned that while sentiment has turned more constructive, investors continue monitoring inflation and broader economic conditions that could alter the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Fed expectations have shifted repeatedly this year
The latest reaction marks another major turn in how markets are pricing future monetary policy.
In May, Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 after stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts before quickly recovering as buyers returned to the market.
By late July, prediction market platform Kalshi showed traders assigning a 59% probability to a September Federal Reserve rate hike, reflecting concerns that inflation and resilient economic data could delay policy easing.
The latest jobs report has since reversed much of that sentiment, with investors once again positioning for lower borrowing costs instead of additional tightening.
Bitcoin options market shows improving positioning
Recent activity in the Bitcoin options market indicates traders have become more optimistic, although demand for downside protection remains.
According to Glassnode, implied volatility has moved above realized volatility after trailing actual market movements for several weeks. The firm said this suggests options traders are once again pricing in greater future uncertainty.
Glassnode also reported that short-term risk sentiment has improved. One-week 25-delta skew has fallen to around 7%, while longer-dated contracts remain between 10% and 12%, indicating traders continue to hedge against longer-term downside risks.
The firm noted that call options still account for a larger share of the market, with roughly $15 billion in open interest compared with about $10 billion in put options, despite recent contract expiries.
Glassnode also observed that recent options activity has centered on the $61,000–$67,000 range. According to the firm, buying interest in $65,000 call options and put selling has increased, while demand for protective puts below current market prices remains present.
Bitcoin and Gold continue tracking macro trends
The latest move also reinforces a trend highlighted in previous market research.
Earlier this year, Grayscale noted that Bitcoin and gold had increasingly responded to changes in interest-rate expectations and broader macroeconomic conditions rather than crypto-specific developments.
The asset manager argued that Bitcoin could benefit if the Federal Reserve eventually pauses or reverses its tightening cycle, particularly if lower rates improve liquidity across financial markets.
This week’s synchronized rally across cryptocurrencies, equities and gold suggests macroeconomic expectations remain the dominant driver of investor sentiment as markets continue watching incoming inflation and labor-market data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.
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