Key Highlights
- 84.7% of 2025 token launches are trading below their TGE valuation, signaling widespread post-launch losses.
- Median performance is down 71% in FDV, showing sharp value erosion shortly after launch.
- Only 15% of tokens are above TGE, with ASTEN standing out as a rare outperformer.
Token launches in 2025 have handed investors a cold wake-up call. Data compiled by Memento Research shows that the vast majority of new tokens are trading below their Token Generation Event (TGE) valuations, reinforcing growing skepticism around whether “early” still means opportunity in today’s market.
A year of underwhelming launches
According to analysis shared by Ash from Memento Research, 2025 TGEs have been, in his words, a “bloodbath.” Out of 118 token launches tracked this year, 100 tokens, or 84.7%, are now trading below their TGE valuation. In practical terms, roughly four out of every five launches have failed to hold their opening price.
The median tells the real story, and it isn’t pretty. Across the shared document in an X post by Wu Blockchain, median FDV is down 71% from TGE, while median market cap has fallen 67%. Just 18 tokens, roughly 15% of launches, are still trading above their opening valuation.
What the data covers and what it doesn’t
The dataset focuses on larger projects with confirmed centralized exchange listings, rather than obscure or illiquid launches. TGE prices reflect a mix of DEX and CEX opening prices, with a possible ±10% variance due to data availability. Sources include on-chain data, CoinGecko, and CoinMarketCap.
In other words, this is not a cherry-picked list of failed experiments. It reflects what happened to many of the year’s most visible and well-funded launches.
ASTEN cuts through the wreckage
One token did not get buried in the carnage. ASTEN, tied to the Aster ecosystem, stands out as the strongest launch tracked by Memento Research in 2025.
Its numbers explain why. ASTEN now carries an FDV near $5.7 billion, with about $300 million in daily trading volume. Since TGE, its FDV is up roughly 744.6%, an extreme outlier in a year where most charts never recovered.
What is actually driving the numbers
ASTEN’s performance has coincided with continued product development. Earlier this week, Aster announced the launch of “Shield Mode” on its decentralized perpetuals platform. The feature introduces a protected trading environment that allows up to 1001x leverage on BTC and Ethereum (ETH), zero slippage, no gas fees, and concealed trade intent by avoiding public order books.
While extreme leverage is not for everyone, the release reinforced ASTEN’s positioning as an active, evolving trading venue rather than a static token story. In today’s market, liquidity is selective and valuations don’t get a free pass. Most new tokens are failing to live up to their launch prices, while a few winners stand alone as rare exceptions.
For investors, 2025 has delivered a blunt lesson: buying at TGE is no longer an easy path to upside. It now requires real traction, sustained demand, and patience in a market that has little mercy left.
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