Key Highlights
- Lighter moved 250M $LIT tokens, equal to about 25% of supply, increasing expectations that a user airdrop may arrive alongside its upcoming TGE.
- With nearly 12M points issued, linear distribution estimates suggest each point could equal about 20.8 $LIT, depending on final allocation and launch pricing.
- Rising trading volumes, active Polymarket bets, and a scheduled network upgrade have intensified market focus on Lighter’s year-end plans.
Lighter, the decentralized perpetual exchange, has moved 250 million LIT tokens, sparking speculation of a large user airdrop. The transfer, spotted by various analysts, represents about 25% of the total supply.
Market observers quickly correlated this move with Lighter’s impending token generation event (TGE), which was due before December 31, 2025. If it is distributed evenly among the potentially 12 million user points, then every point may be worth around 20.8 LIT, which will be equivalent to a value of $68, as per market speculations.
This comes amidst the upgrade of the Lighter network scheduled for December 21, 2025, at 12:00 PM UTC. As noted by Lighter Daily, previous upgrades included the addition of an airdrop allocation module, further confirming the expected upgrade.
Airdrop details and points program
The planned airdrop is closely tied to Lighter’s Points Program, which rewards user participation across trading seasons. Season 1, spanning January 23 to September 30, 2025, ran during private beta. The platform onboarded 100,000 to 110,000 users and generated $550 billion in trading volume. Points distributed totaled about 8.65 million. Users also benefited from trading competitions and liquidity provider boosts.
Season 2, ran from October 1 to December 31, 2025, covers the public mainnet launch. Over 500,000 new users have entered, and the user base is at a cumulative level of 640,000–750,000 users. Season 2 primarily centers on anti-Sybil systems and does not allow wash trading, charging only API-based users, such as market makers. As of December, close to 12 million points are given out on a weekly basis, varying from 250,000 to 600,000 points.
Market activity and speculation
Trading volume on Lighter surged steadily throughout 2025. As per DeFiLIama data, daily perp volumes were below $1 billion early in the year, then climbed to $2–$4 billion mid-year. From August onward, volumes frequently exceeded $5 billion, with October and November peaking at $18–$20 billion in single-day activity.
The total annualized fees reached $167.9 million, while the 30-day perpetual volume stood at $248.3 billion. Open interest hovered around $1.7 billion, highlighting robust engagement.
Market speculations grew as Polymarket insights revealed the betting trends by insiders. Moreover, the accounts associated with the initial deposits of $1.7 million into Lighter placed substantial bets on the times and the full dilution value of TGE.
In a recent X post, ProMint indicated the speculation regarding the premarket price to be between $3 to $5 per LIT token, and the points may be worth $58 to $104.
Public reaction and market implications
Community discussions show strong anticipation. Hexdrunker estimates points could range from $33 on the low end to $150 at the high end. Polymarket lines indicate confidence in an end-of-year airdrop, with odds tightening around December 29.
Lighter’s CEO Vladimir Novakovski cautioned: “The tiger doesn’t let you know in advance when it will appear,” emphasizing unpredictable but strategic token releases.
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