Key Highlights
- HYPE drops 60% as large token unlocks flood the market, creating strong selling pressure despite steady trading and platform activity.
- Monthly token unlocks of 9.9 million HYPE outweigh buybacks, causing persistent downward pressure even as trading volumes and revenue remain high.
- Perpetual DEX market share falls from 57% to 16%, showing that supply pressure and competition drive price drops more than project performance.
HYPE, the native token of decentralized perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid, has fallen by a significant 60% from its all-time high (ATH) in September. This drastic drop in HYPE price comes while the whole crypto industry was convinced of Hyperliquid’s future potential of replacing centralized exchanges and attaining a parabolic growth phase.
According to CoinMarketCap, at the time of writing, HYPE was trading at $24.11 with a decrease of 17% in the last seven days. At its ATH on September 18, 2025, it was trading at $59.39. The fall in HYPE price is not the case due to the absence of demand and trade activity.
The data provided by TradingView indicates that HYPE started its four-hour chart period around the high $30 levels but gradually depreciated with the formation of lower highs and lows. The altcoin has also fallen to the low $20 levels, while attempting to halt the downward momentum and rise toward its past gains.
Technical analysis tools further underline the bearish outlook. Relative Strength Index (RSI) values are stuck around the low 40s, displaying a lack of momentum and purchase strength. The RSI is an indicator of buying or selling pressure in the market. At the same time, the MACD line is still below the signal line, while the histogram confirms the negative momentum of sales. The MACD is a gauge used to compare two moving averages in terms of trend change and momentum strength.
Strong revenue but under token pressure
Notwithstanding the price weakness, the fundamentals are still sound for Hyperliquid. According to the DefiLlama data, the annualized fees are close to $970 million, with protocol revenue of $883 million, with $874 million going back to the token holders.
Market activity has seen a large increase with 30-day perpetual trading volume at $204 billion. The daily open interest notches at $6.8 billion. This reflects intense resource allocation and trader interest. HYPE is highly liquid and engaged relative to the broader decentralized finance (DeFi) sector.
Rise of Hyperliquid competitors
The decentralized perpetuals market is currently navigating through a notable shift with conflicting open interest and trading volumes. According to DefiLlama, Aster leads in total trading activity, handling about $9.16 billion in trades. Hyperliquid comes in second with $8.56 billion.
However, Hyperliquid stands out when it comes to open interest, at $6.82 billion, showing that traders are keeping bigger, longer-term positions on the platform.
Lighter shows a high volume of $252.9 billion over 30 days but lower open interest at $1.76 billion, suggesting quicker position turnover. EdgeX and ApeX record smaller but consistent figures, pointing to moderate participation. Consequently, Hyperliquid stands out for capital depth, while competitors dominate sheer trading turnover.
Furthermore, the erosion of market share makes the problem worse. The market dominance of perpetual DEXs reduced from 57% to 16%, while the volumes in the spot market reduced from $1.2 billion to $200 million.
Token unlocks drive price pressure
Analyst Hanzo on X highlighted the critical factor behind HYPE’s decline. He noted that approximately 9.9 million HYPE enter the market monthly for 24 months, adding $270 million in supply at current prices. While buybacks absorb only $90 million, it still creates $180 million net monthly selling pressure. This “Unlock Death Spiral” overwhelms even strong revenue and community support.
“The protocol prints money but the unlock schedule means relentless supply pressure regardless of how well the business performs,” Hanzo wrote, adding, “Perpetual DEX dominance dropped from 57% to 16% as competitors like Aster launched incentive campaigns.”
The analyst further notes that initial unlocks triggered immediate selling. On November 29, the team received 1.75 million tokens, with over 600K sold over the counter. On-chain data shows $2.2 million in dumps shortly after. A whale wallet netted $122 million in profits, causing an immediate 17% drop in price.
While governance proposals, such as the burning of 37 million tokens, are positive for the community, it does little to mitigate the issue of unlocks. Even active buying back makes the system slightly inflationary. As of now, Hyperliquid continues to see activity, but the ongoing unlocks mean price swings are likely to continue.
Also Read: Robinhood Deploys Over 500 Tokenized Stocks on Arbitrum
