In the last few months, the US-China trade war brought turbulence in the global market. Whether traditional markets or digital currencies, every asset class experienced a roller-coaster ride. However, these trade tensions are now fading away as U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping move toward finalizing a trade deal. Thus, it has sparked speculations of the Altcoin Season 2025 kicking in.
Following a rocky stretch marked by reciprocal tariffs and export restrictions, the US and China have agreed to a truce that may relieve some of the most punishing economic burdens on both parties. The agreement, the result of high-stakes talks in London and Geneva, is subject to formal signatures.
It would also establish a framework for China to resume supplying the US with rare earth elements: minerals used in the automotive, semiconductor, and technology industries. The US, in turn, lowered the tariffs on Chinese products. The tariffs were cut down from 145% to 55%, and China has offered to drop its tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%.
After sealing the deal, in a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote:
“Our deal with China is done, subject to final approval with President Xi and me. Full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China. Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students using our colleges and universities (which has always been good with me!). We are getting a total of 55% tariffs, China is getting 10%. Relationship is excellent! Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
The deal holds a pivotal position due to a number of reasons. First, it eases concerns of a more serious crisis in the global supply chain, especially in the sectors dependent on rare earths, with China producing 60% of the world’s total and almost 90% of the processing. Second, it sends a message that both economic superpowers are ready to back down from the abyss and bring some predictability to international trade patterns.
Nevertheless, not everyone is happy about the deal. Most US companies, particularly small and medium enterprises, claim that tariffs are still too high and will still serve as a tax on American consumers and businesses.
Retail giants such as Walmart, which import most of their products from China, have threatened to raise prices. Meanwhile, small business advocacy groups are labelling the new tariff regime as a death sentence to those who rely on Chinese imports.
However, the deal has brought some optimism to the international markets. The S&P 500, say, was modestly higher as the traders rejoiced at the possibility of the stabilization of US-China relations and the revival of the essential supply chains
Not only the traditional investors but crypto fans are also feeling relieved with this deal. Investors and analysts are now speculating that this can escalate the crypto market to the next Altcoin Season.
Analyst Eyes Altcoin Season 2025 Amid Tariff Relaxation
Crypto influencers went to social media to point out a rising feeling in the digital asset community that the US-China trade deal may be the catalyst that starts the Altcoin Season in 2025. A crypto trader named ‘Vantage Crypto’ on X spotlighted that June is historically the month of Altcoin Season. The trader also discussed the historical data and showed how previous Altcoin Seasons started in June.
In the past, periods of macroeconomic stability and the resurgence of risk appetite, often triggered by geopolitical breakthroughs, have been linked to capital rotations in the cryptocurrency market. According to Vantage Crypto’s post, here’s a concise breakdown:
- June 15, 2017: The Altcoin market cap saw 70x rallies until January 2018.
- June 15, 2020: Popular altcoins surged by 1,649% following a drop in Bitcoin dominance.
- June 15, 2021: Altcoins rose 194% while Bitcoin price dipped.
Once the dominance of Bitcoin stagnates or declines, investors are more willing to get better returns in altcoins, which causes sudden price increases and extreme volatility. The backdrop of Bitcoin consolidating and the broader markets supported by the trade deal is viewed as an opportune background for such a rotation.
Final Thoughts
A US-China trade breakthrough and the cyclical nature of the crypto market have aligned to create the conditions that many expect to see a potentially explosive Altcoin Season in 2025. However, the trade deal is not a panacea, tariffs remain elevated and certain industries will still feel the pinch.
Nonetheless, it is an important de-escalation that will put confidence back into global markets and, by extension, into risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. The takeaway here, to crypto investors, is simple: keep an eye on the macro headlines, be mindful of any changes in Bitcoin dominance.
They should get ready to experience the volatility and opportunity that only an AltSeason can bring. The planets could be aligning to produce the next big rotation in digital assets, and that could dominate the rest of 2025 for traders and investors.
