“In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens you can bet it was planned that way,” these words by 32nd U.S. President Franklin D Roosevelt sound almost prophetic for former prez Donald Trump, who is gearing up for another shot at the presidential elections later this year.
77-year-old Trump, a business mogul turned politician, has worn many hats in his career including MAGA. On Thursday, Trump also became the first former president in United States history to be convicted of a crime as a New York jury convicted him on all 34 felony counts for falsifying business records. The conviction might put Trump on either four year jail term or probation but it will not deter him from contesting elections.
Ahead of U.S. presidential elections, Trump is now flanked by Neo-conservatives, evangelicals, and his new friends in the crypto community. With the latest conviction, Trump is desperately looking for friends as he is all set to receive his party’s official nomination for the presidential elections. He sees a lucrative voter base in the crypto community and has made it abundantly clear in his recent rallies.
Trump’s ‘quid pro quo’ strategy for 50 million crypto voters seems to have struck a chord in the community, which is now increasingly demanding relaxed regulations in the crypto sector.
The relationship between Trump and cryptocurrency has been complex and evolving. Initially a staunch critic, Trump has significantly softened his stance on cryptocurrencies, culminating in his 2024 presidential campaign embracing crypto donations and making bold promises to the community.
Trump’s view on crypto has changed over time and various factors have directed his perspective to remain ahead in his political crusades.
Early Skepticism and Criticism ( 2019- 2021)
Donald Trump’s initial stance on cryptocurrencies was marked by strong skepticism. In July 2019, he tweeted that he was “not a fan” of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, describing them as “highly volatile and based on thin air” He also expressed concerns about their potential use in illegal activities, advocating for strong regulatory oversight.
In June 2020, Trump reportedly directed Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to “go after Bitcoin” and other cryptocurrencies. As Trump’s administration mirrored his critical stance, it began to develop strategies to clamp down on Bitcoin and other digital assets. The administration policies reflected a broader apprehension about the rise of cryptocurrencies and their potential to undermine traditional finance.
Trump’s Love for Dollar
In June 2021, Trump reiterated his negative views on Bitcoin, calling it a ‘ scam’ and expressing concerns that it posed a threat to the U.S dollar. During an interview, he stated, “ Bitcoin, it just seems like a scam” and further said, “I don’t like it because it’s another currency competing against the dollar.”
Trump made it clear back then that he wanted the dollar to be the currency of the world. He was very concerned with the price volatility of the cryptocurrency. He Identifies it as a major point for his anti-crypto stance as he believed cryptocurrencies were based on ‘thin air’.
Shift Towards Indifference and Releasing NFT (2022)
There were no major new developments or policy proposals from Trump related to crypto regulations in 2022. Despite the reduced focus, when Trump did mention cryptocurrencies, his views remained consistent with his earlier skepticism. However, on the contrary, he did drop his very own NFT collection by the end of the year.
In December 2022, Trump announced his first NFT collection, known as Trump Digital cards, which sold out within a day. The NFT collectors widely appreciated the collection and saw a significant increase in value on secondary markets.
Trump went on to drop more collections over time, two more trading card collections and a mugshot collection. In a video during one of the NFT collections launch he said, “ NFTs and physical cards are collector’s items and something you give your kids and grand kids”.
Softening Up & Signs Of Reversal (2023)
The latter part of 2023 saw a notable shift in Trump’s approach toward cryptocurrencies. As regulatory pressures under the Biden administration intensified, Trump began to soften his stance. This change was partly influenced by growing dissatisfaction within the crypto community towards Biden’s administration.
The Biden administration’s approach was seen by many in the crypto community as excessively stringent and unfriendly, fostering widespread dissatisfaction. This environment of discontent likely played a role in influencing Trump’s more accommodating perspective on cryptocurrencies, marking a notable shift from his viewpoints.
Locking Horns with Senator Elizabeth Warren
Senator Warren has been actively involved in the cryptocurrency regulatory landscape. Warren has introduced and supported several pieces of legislation aimed at tightening controls over the cryptocurrency market. She has taken a strong stance against the crypto industry, focusing on issues like money laundering and the use of digital assets in illicit activities.
Trump has criticized Warren’s stance on cryptocurrencies. He has been vocal about his opposition to stringent cryptocurrency regulation, which contrasts sharply with Warren’s aggressive regulatory approach.
Trump’s opposition to Warren’s policies aligns with his broader criticism of heavy-handed regulatory measures, arguing that they stifle innovation and economic growth. This stance became more pronounced as regulatory pressure increased under the Biden administration, which Trump and his supporters view as hostile to the crypto industry.
Embracing Cryptocurrency (2024)
By 2024, Trump’s position on cryptocurrency has evolved dramatically. Trump’s active engagement with cryptocurrency has been reflected in his substantial crypto portfolio, which surpassed $10 million, largely driven by the value of Trump Coin. His holdings also include Ethereum and other tokens.
In May 2024, his presidential campaign announced the acceptance of cryptocurrency donations through Coinbase Commerce. This marks a significant departure from his previous skepticism.
His campaign envisions building a crypto army against Senator Warren’s anti-crypto policies. It seems like it aims to appeal to the younger, tech-savvy voters more akin to cryptocurrencies.
Trump pledged to block the implementation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in the United States. This stance aligns him with certain factions that are wary of increased government control over financial transactions and the potential for surveillance that a CBDC might entail. Trump argues that a CBDC could undermine financial privacy and freedom.
Current Position and Promises
Today, Trump positions himself as a defender of the crypto industry against regulatory overreach. His campaign actively courts the support of the crypto community, emphasizing the need for a favorable regulatory environment to foster innovation and prevent the exodus of the crypto business from the United States.
One of the most notable aspects of Trump’s current stance is his willingness to explore the potential of cryptocurrencies in solving major economic issues. Trump has publicly questioned whether Bitcoin could help address the U.S. national debt, a statement that highlights his more open-minded approach to the potential benefits of digital currencies.
The most recent move Trump has made is to invite Elon Musk for a discussion over cryptocurrency policies. Trump and Musk are discussing how the tech entrepreneur could assume a wide advising position if Trump is re-elected in November.
Furthermore, Trump has made a bold promise to pardon Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the darknet marketplace Silk Road, who is currently serving a life sentence without parole. This pledge has garnered significant attention and support within certain segments of the crypto community, further solidifying Trump’s newfound pro-crypto stance.
Post Conviction Prospects for Trump
Trump’s chances in the 2024 election, as gauged by Prediction markets like Polymarket, has been the subject of great debate. Before his recent legal troubles, Polymarket voters gave Trump a significant lead, with bettors seeing a clear path to victory. As of early 2024, Trumps chances of winning the election were pegged at around 56%, compared to Biden’s 38%.
Post the conviction, Polymarket forecast still places Trump in the lead with 54%, showing no major change. It also shows only 16% chance of him going to jail before the election.
Paradigm also reported that 48% crypto owning voters are in favor of Donald Trump to be the Next President. Paradigm study found that the number of Democrats in the United States buying digital currencies is greater than that of Republicans.
It remains to be seen whether the crypto community will fully back Trump post his conviction but his sentencing in the first week of July will decide whether Trump remains a forerunner.
