US inflation could rise to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August, as higher energy prices continue to push up consumer costs. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 14 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time (12:30 UTC), just two weeks before the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision.
Economists surveyed by the Financial Times expect headline inflation, which measures price changes across goods and services purchased by consumers, to reach 3.7% annually. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is forecast at 2.5%, compared with 2.4% in August.
The report will be the first major monthly consumer inflation reading since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, its first increase in more than three years. The central bank lifted its benchmark interest-rate range to 3.75%–4.00% as policymakers continued their efforts to bring inflation closer to the 2% target.
Despite expectations of higher inflation, traders are largely betting that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its October 27–28 meeting. Interest-rate futures currently indicate less than a 20% probability of another increase this month, making Wednesday’s inflation numbers an important test of those expectations.
What Are Economists Expecting From the October CPI Report?
Economists anticipate another sharp monthly increase in overall consumer prices, largely driven by fuel and energy costs following disruptions to global oil supplies.
US CPI is expected to increase by 0.6% in September from the previous month, while annual inflation is projected at 3.6%. A separate consensus cited by the Financial Times and Investopedia places annual inflation at 3.7%.
Both sets of forecasts point to inflation accelerating from August, although estimates differ slightly on the annual figure.
Core CPI is expected to increase by 0.2% month over month and 2.5% annually. The projected monthly increase is relatively moderate compared with the anticipated rise in headline inflation, suggesting that energy prices may account for a substantial portion of September’s acceleration.
September CPI expectations:
| Inflation measure | Forecast |
| Headline CPI, annual | 3.6%–3.7% |
| Headline CPI, monthly | +0.6% |
| Core CPI, annual | 2.5% |
| Core CPI, monthly | +0.2% |
Economists’ forecasts ahead of the October 14 release, not official results.
The difference between headline and core inflation will be particularly important for the Federal Reserve. A rise concentrated in energy prices would suggest that fuel costs are driving much of the increase, while stronger core inflation could indicate that price pressures are spreading into other parts of the economy.
Higher Energy Prices Could Drive September Inflation
Energy prices were already making a substantial contribution to U.S. inflation before September began. In August, gasoline prices increased 3.9%, accounting for more than one-third of the monthly rise in overall consumer prices, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The broader energy index rose 2.1% during August and 16.3% over the previous 12 months. Gasoline prices were 27.4% higher than a year earlier, while fuel oil prices had increased 52%.
The September report is expected to reflect further pressure from energy markets, where the conflict involving Iran and disruptions to oil supplies have kept fuel costs elevated.
David Kohl, chief economist at Swiss private banking group Julius Baer, expects higher energy costs to lift headline inflation while underlying price pressures remain comparatively moderate. His assessment points to limited evidence so far that energy inflation is spreading significantly into other consumer categories.
The August report also showed that housing costs, a major component of the CPI, increased 0.3% during the month. Meanwhile, prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3%, compared with the 0.2% increase economists expect for September.
If the September core figure matches that forecast, it would represent slower monthly growth in underlying consumer prices despite the anticipated acceleration in overall inflation.
A stronger core reading, however, would suggest that inflation is becoming harder to contain beyond energy markets, complicating the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision.
Federal Reserve Faces October Rate Decision After September Hike
The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in September has made the upcoming CPI report particularly important for investors.
On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the central bank’s monetary policy-setting body, unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate increase, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
The decision was the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023. As covered in The Crypto Times’ September FOMC live blog, Bitcoin initially showed little reaction to the widely anticipated decision, trading around $75,000–$76,000 as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh addressed inflation and monetary policy.
Minutes from the September meeting, released on October 7, subsequently showed that most policymakers expected another interest-rate increase before the end of 2026, although they had different views on when further tightening would be necessary.
The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for October 27–28, according to its official policy calendar.
However, another increase this month remains unlikely according to current futures pricing. The CME FedWatch Tool, which calculates implied probabilities from federal funds futures, indicates less than a 20% chance of an October rate hike.
The outlook for December is different, as most Federal Reserve officials anticipated further tightening before year-end, while futures markets have assigned considerably greater probability to an increase at the December meeting.
Federal Reserve officials have also expressed differing views about how much more tightening may be needed.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on October 12 that strong corporate investment and consumer spending continued to support demand, making further action potentially necessary to bring inflation down. She remained open-minded about a rate increase in October.
New York Fed President John Williams, meanwhile, said he expected one more increase this year but currently saw no need for additional hikes in 2027.
The CPI report will provide both officials with another reading on inflation before the October meeting. In particular, a core inflation figure above forecasts could strengthen arguments for further tightening, while a lower reading would support keeping rates unchanged.
Bitcoin Holds Near $83,000 Ahead of CPI Release
Bitcoin was trading near $83,000 on October 13 as investors prepared for the U.S. inflation report.
The cryptocurrency was quoted around $83,385 on Tuesday, with rising U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and political uncertainty weighing on broader market sentiment.
Bitcoin has recovered substantially from the levels recorded during the Fed’s September rate announcement. At the time, it was trading near $76,000, while cryptocurrency-linked stocks, including Coinbase, Circle and Robinhood, declined following the central bank’s first rate hike in more than three years.
As The Crypto Times reported, Bitcoin’s relatively limited reaction contrasted with the sharper losses recorded by several publicly listed crypto companies.
Ahead of the CPI release, traditional financial markets are also showing sensitivity to inflation expectations.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined to approximately 5.19% on October 13, while the two-year yield, which is particularly sensitive to expectations about Federal Reserve policy, hovered near 4.80%.
Higher Treasury yields can reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, especially when investors expect interest rates to remain elevated. A stronger U.S. dollar can create additional pressure by making dollar-denominated assets more expensive for overseas investors.
However, Bitcoin’s immediate response will depend on whether Wednesday’s figures differ materially from expectations.
If annual inflation comes in around 3.6%–3.7% and monthly core inflation increases by 0.2%, the results would broadly match the numbers investors are already anticipating.
A lower reading could reduce expectations for further interest-rate increases, potentially supporting Bitcoin and Ethereum if bond yields decline in response.
A higher reading, particularly one accompanied by unexpectedly strong core inflation, could push yields and the dollar higher while increasing pressure on cryptocurrencies.
Volatility could also be amplified in Bitcoin’s futures market, where leveraged positions can be liquidated when prices move sharply. Traders following the release can track futures open interest, funding rates and liquidation data through CoinGlass, alongside live Bitcoin prices on CoinGecko.
What Comes After the October CPI Release?
The CPI report will be followed by another inflation indicator on October 15, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) at 12:30 UTC.
Unlike CPI, which measures prices paid by consumers, PPI tracks price changes received by domestic producers. The figures can help indicate whether businesses are facing additional cost pressures that could eventually be passed on to customers.
The Bureau is also scheduled to publish U.S. import and export price indexes on October 16, providing further information about international pricing pressures.
These reports will arrive ahead of the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting, where policymakers must decide whether September’s rate increase is sufficient for now or whether inflation requires another adjustment.
For Bitcoin, the immediate focus remains on the October 14 CPI release. With headline inflation already expected to accelerate, the monthly core reading and subsequent changes in interest-rate expectations could have a greater influence on trading than the headline figure alone.
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