Warsh’s Remarks Put Bitcoin and 5% Treasury Yield in Focus
Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $75,877 ahead of the FOMC decision, close to a four-week low after falling nearly 4% on Tuesday. At the same time, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained near the psychologically important 5% level, after touching roughly 5.04% earlier this week.
Those moves raise the stakes for Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting remarks. Markets are pricing a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, which would lift the federal funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. With that move largely priced in, Bitcoin’s next reaction could depend more heavily on what Warsh says about inflation and the possibility of further tightening.
Warsh’s recent remarks have already produced sizable moves across rates and crypto. Following his Jackson Hole speech on August 28, the implied probability of a September hike jumped to 55.7% from 35.4% a day earlier, while Bitcoin fell 3.34% as Treasury yields and the dollar moved higher.
Warsh has also resisted providing extensive forward guidance, saying at Jackson Hole that guidance should be “limited and circumscribed” during normal conditions.
That leaves Bitcoin exposed to two potential volatility windows: the initial reaction to the FOMC decision and projections, followed by another move when Warsh begins explaining the policy outlook. With BTC holding near $76,000 while the 10-year Treasury yield sits around 5%, any signal that further hikes remain on the table could become particularly important for crypto and other rate-sensitive assets.
Dot Plot Could Matter as Much as Rate Decision
A 25-basis-point hike is already heavily reflected in market expectations, shifting attention toward what Fed policymakers project beyond September.
The June projections showed a sharply divided committee. Nine of 19 policymakers expected rates would need to rise by at least 25 basis points before the end of 2026, while another nine expected rates could remain unchanged or decline by a quarter point.
The September projections will show whether that balance has shifted toward additional tightening.
Warsh’s language will also be closely watched after he repeatedly signaled that the Fed should avoid providing markets with excessive forward guidance. His comments on inflation, the labor market and whether September represents a one-off adjustment or the beginning of further tightening could become the main market catalyst after the initial rate announcement.
What Time Is the FOMC Rate Decision?
The Federal Reserve has scheduled the September policy announcement for 18:00 UTC / 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, September 16.
At the same time, the Fed will release its updated economic projections, including policymakers’ forecasts for inflation, economic growth, unemployment and the federal funds rate.
Warsh’s press conference begins at 18:30 UTC / 2:30 p.m. EDT.
FOMC September 16 Schedule
| Event | UTC | EDT |
|---|---|---|
| FOMC rate decision | 18:00 | 2:00 p.m. |
| FOMC statement | 18:00 | 2:00 p.m. |
| Economic projections | 18:00 | 2:00 p.m. |
| Updated dot plot | 18:00 | 2:00 p.m. |
| Kevin Warsh press conference | 18:30 | 2:30 p.m. |
Bitcoin Near $76K as Markets Await Fed Decision
Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $75,900 on Wednesday, down about 1.3% over the past 24 hours, as markets positioned for the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision.
Interest-rate futures are heavily tilted toward a quarter-point increase. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 92.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, which would lift the federal funds target range from the current 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%.
The Fed held rates unchanged at its July meeting, but the decision exposed a growing divide within the committee. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan dissented from the 9–3 decision and favored raising the target range by 25 basis points. (Federal Reserve)
With a quarter-point move largely reflected in futures pricing, the immediate focus will extend beyond the headline rate decision to the Fed’s updated dot plot and economic projections. Those releases will show whether policymakers expect additional tightening this year and how their outlook for inflation, unemployment and economic growth has changed since June.
Kevin Warsh’s press conference will then be closely watched for how he characterizes the inflation outlook and whether the Fed sees a need for further policy adjustments after September.
