ARK Invest has introduced private prediction-market exchange Kalshi to its ETF strategies, according to Founder and CEO Cathie Wood.
Wood said on X on September 30 that ARK was “very happy” to have introduced Kalshi to its ETF strategies, describing the company’s management team positively and saying it was positioned around the growth of prediction markets.
The announcement came alongside ARK’s September 29 trade notification, which shows portfolio adjustments across its actively managed ETFs, including purchases of NVIDIA, Broadcom, CoreWeave, SpaceX, and Tesla, and reductions in AMD, among others. ARK says the daily files are not comprehensive lists of all ETF trades and are unofficial and unreconciled.
ARK Adds Kalshi to Its ETF Strategies
Kalshi operates a prediction-market exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Wood’s September 30 post specifically said ARK had introduced Kalshi to its ETF strategies, making the announcement a disclosure of new ETF exposure rather than simply an update about ARK’s existing private-market investment activity. Because Kalshi is a private company, its shares do not appear in ARK’s public-equity trade notifications; the position is held within the ETFs as a private holding, in the same way ARK holds companies such as SpaceX.
Wood did not disclose the size of the Kalshi position or identify which ARK ETFs received the shares in the post. ARK has previously had exposure to Kalshi through its venture-investment activity; the September 30 announcement concerns the company’s inclusion in ARK’s ETF strategies.
ARK has publicly framed prediction markets as a large future market, with the firm’s own research estimating that the sector’s annual trading volume could eventually reach a range of roughly $1 trillion to $5 trillion, an ARK projection rather than an established forecast. The bet also tracks Kalshi’s rising valuation: the company reached a $22 billion valuation in a funding round earlier in 2026, according to its own disclosures, and has since been reported to be raising at a target valuation of around $40 billion, a figure that reflects a reported target rather than a closed round.
For crypto readers, Kalshi’s relevance comes from its position in the broader prediction-market sector alongside crypto-native platforms such as Polymarket. The two platforms use different market structures and regulatory frameworks, with Kalshi operating as a CFTC-regulated exchange and Polymarket built on-chain.
The sector’s regulatory footing is still being defined. In late September, the CFTC flagged manipulation risk in Kalshi-style “mention” prediction markets and issued a new advisory, a reminder that enthusiasm from investors like ARK is running ahead of settled rules. The Crypto Times has previously covered Polymarket’s institutional expansion and Kalshi’s request for CFTC approval to let institutions trade prediction markets on margin.
ARK’s September 29 Trade Activity
ARK’s September 29 trade notification showed purchases of NVIDIA across ARKK, ARKQ, ARKW and ARKX. In the flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), the firm added 187,260 NVIDIA shares (0.5017% of the fund), 60,019 Broadcom shares (0.2506%), 48,352 Tesla shares (0.1996%) and 198,567 CoreWeave shares (0.1989%), along with smaller buys of Veracyte (119,416 shares) and Intellia Therapeutics (163,637 shares). ARKW added 80,245 NVIDIA (0.9566%), 16,244 Broadcom (0.3018%) and 55,983 CoreWeave (0.2495%) shares; ARKQ added 62,034 NVIDIA (0.7501%) and 9,112 SpaceX (0.0708%) shares; and ARKX added 27,142 NVIDIA shares (0.8204%). In the fintech fund (ARKF), ARK bought 34,343 Block shares (0.3009%) and 26,940 Airbnb shares (0.5009%), while the genomics fund (ARKG) added 41,555 Intellia shares.
On the sell side, AMD was reduced across four funds: 45,412 shares in ARKW, the largest reduction by weight at 1.4421% of the fund, plus 104,082 shares in ARKK (0.7429%), 23,047 in ARKQ (0.7423%) and 9,226 in ARKX (0.7429%). ARKK also sold 386,216 shares of 10X Genomics (0.4027%), 128,292 shares of Tempus AI (0.1240%) and 46,931 shares of Twist Bioscience (0.1000%). ARKQ sold 3,517 Alphabet shares and ARKX sold 1,393, while ARKG trimmed 49,178 shares of 10X Genomics and ARKF sold 148,686 shares of Zillow.
The trades show increased reported exposure to several AI and technology companies alongside reductions in AMD, but the notification does not provide ARK’s rationale for each individual transaction.
ARK also cautions that its trade files do not represent comprehensive lists of a day’s trades, exclude certain ETF activity and may be supplemented by additional files. The firm says its official accounting and custody processes are handled separately and that the trade notifications are unofficial and unreconciled.
Prediction Markets and AI Investments
The Kalshi announcement and the September 29 trade notification cover different parts of ARK’s portfolio activity, but both sit inside its ETF strategies. Kalshi is a private-company position now held within ARK’s ETFs, while the September 29 notification covers public-equity adjustments in those same actively managed funds. ARK’s published fund materials describe its investment strategy as focused on companies associated with “disruptive innovation,” including AI, next-generation internet, space, autonomous technology, digital assets and fintech.
The September 29 trades included NVIDIA, Broadcom, and CoreWeave — companies with exposure to AI computing and infrastructure — as well as Tesla, SpaceX, Block, and other technology-focused businesses.
Taken together, the disclosures provide a snapshot of ARK’s holdings and trading activity but do not, by themselves, establish how the firm expects these investments to perform. The firm’s own disclosures state that its trade notifications are for informational purposes and are not recommendations to buy or sell the securities mentioned.
Why It Matters
ARK’s latest disclosures put prediction-market exposure and AI-related public-equity trades in the same portfolio picture. The Kalshi inclusion signals that a prominent innovation investor is backing regulated event contracts as a distinct growth sector, even as the CFTC sharpens its scrutiny of those markets, while the September 29 trades show ARK concentrating its public-equity exposure in AI-infrastructure names and paring back AMD on the same day.
Whether ARK’s timing proves prescient or early will play out over quarters rather than days; some observers have noted the firm’s record at timing high-conviction bets has been mixed. The Crypto Times makes no forecast on Kalshi’s valuation, ARK’s funds or any security named here.
Also Read: Kalshi Eyes $1B Raise at $40B Valuation With Sequoia, Wellington
