Key Highlights
- TD Cowen gives the Clarity Act cloture vote a 60% chance of failing.
- Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning the bill needs support from at least seven Democrats or independents to move forward.
- Sen. Cynthia Lummis said the effort could be over if cloture fails, after more than a year of negotiations and over 120 Democratic requests being addressed.
Investment banking and financial services firm TD Cowen expects the U.S. Senate’s Clarity Act cloture vote to fail on Tuesday, giving that outcome a 60% chance as lawmakers prepare to vote at about 2:15 p.m. ET.
The vote will test whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act can get the 60 votes needed to move forward, after more than a year of talks between Republicans and Democrats.
The bank’s view puts the bill at a key moment. TD Cowen gives a 20% chance that the cloture motion will pass if Democrats are allowed to put their counterproposal forward as an amendment.
It sees a 15% chance that lawmakers set the bill aside until after the election and only a 5% chance that the legislation becomes law before the election.
What the cloture vote means
The vote is on H.R. 3633, also known as the CLARITY Act. Cloture is a Senate procedure used to end debate and move a bill ahead. In this case, Tuesday’s vote is not the final vote on the crypto market-structure bill.
If it passes, senators would be able to begin formal work on the legislation, including possible amendments and a later vote on the bill itself.
The numbers in the Senate make the vote harder to predict. Republicans have 53 seats, so they would need at least seven Democratic or independent senators to join them if all Republicans vote in favor. That leaves the two parties needing to reach an agreement before the vote.
Democrats’ counteroffer remains key
TD Cowen said it is watching the Republican response to a Democratic counteroffer that includes ethics rules involving President Donald Trump’s family.
The disagreement comes after months of talks over the bill. Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a Republican supporter of the legislation, said lawmakers have spent more than a year working on it and that Republicans have accepted more than 120 requests from Democrats.
Lummis warns of an end to the effort
Speaking to reporters ahead of the vote, Lummis said a failed cloture vote could bring the current effort to an end.
“I think we’re done. It’s over,” Lummis said. She added that lawmakers had been working on the bill for more than a year and had already given Democrats more than 120 of their requests.
Lummis had also called for action in an opinion piece published by The Hill on September 14, one day before the Senate vote. She described the CLARITY Act as a bipartisan deal after 12 months of negotiations and said Congress was facing a final chance to move the measure forward.
The bill is aimed at giving the digital asset industry clearer rules, including which federal agency should oversee different parts of the market. Lummis said unclear federal oversight has made consumer protection harder and has pushed some companies to operate outside the United States.
For now, the next step comes down to today’s cloture vote. A failure would block the Senate from moving into formal consideration of the bill at this stage, while a successful vote would open the door for debate, amendments and a later vote on the legislation.
Also Read: Tim Scott’s Team Pushes Back as Democrats Reject Latest CLARITY Act Offer
