Key Highlights
- Bitcoin enters September after gaining 24.9% in August, with the $75,000-$76,500 region emerging as an important support area.
- Glassnode sees heavier profitable supply around current levels, while Bitcoin faces a broader resistance zone between $81,000 and $86,000.
- ETF inflows have returned, but Treasury buybacks, CPI and the September 15-16 Fed meeting could determine whether BTC moves toward $90,000 or retests the low-$70,000s.
Bitcoin (BTC) enters September after one of its strongest monthly rallies in nearly two years, but the market is now facing a more difficult test as price approaches heavy supply above $80,000.
According to Bitfinex Alpha, Bitcoin gained 24.9% in August from its $62,922 monthly open, marking its first positive August since 2021 and its strongest monthly advance since November 2024. BTC had gained 21.1% in just three sessions during the mid-August breakout before momentum slowed following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
The Crypto Times also recorded a 24.95% August gain in its review of Bitcoin’s first positive August since 2021, with BTC climbing from the low-$60,000s toward $81,000 before settling near $78,000 at month-end.
The rally improved Bitcoin’s short-term structure, but September presents a different test. BTC has moved back into an area where more holders can realize profits, while Treasury yields and Federal Reserve expectations remain capable of shifting liquidity conditions quickly.
Bitcoin’s $76K Cost Basis Becomes a Key September Support
Bitcoin has spent much of the period following Jackson Hole consolidating close to the average acquisition price of active market participants.
Bitfinex said BTC traded inside a roughly $76,500-$79,500 range during the five sessions following Warsh’s August 28 speech. The lower end sits just above Bitcoin’s True Market Mean near $76,350, which the firm describes as the average cost basis of active investors in its latest Bitcoin market analysis.
That makes the mid-$76,000 region more significant than an ordinary short-term support level. If Bitcoin continues to hold above the cost basis, much of the supply accumulated during the latest recovery remains profitable or close to breakeven. A sustained move below it would instead place more recent buyers under pressure.
The same region had already emerged during Bitcoin’s August advance. In an earlier CryptoTimes analysis of the $80,000 breakout attempt, Bitget Research Chief Analyst Ryan Lee identified $75,000-$76,000 as the main pullback zone, while a sustained move above $80,000 could open the $82,000-$87,000 range.
Bitcoin’s September structure therefore starts with a relatively clear first test. Holding the mid-$70,000s would preserve much of the August recovery, while a sustained loss would shift attention toward deeper support around the low-$70,000s.
Glassnode Sees Heavier Supply Above $80K
The larger challenge sits above Bitcoin’s current price.
According to Glassnode’s Week Onchain report, 68% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was in profit when BTC returned to price levels previously tested in May, compared with 65% during the earlier test.
The increase reflects redistribution during the summer, meaning more Bitcoin was accumulated at lower prices. BTC is therefore approaching similar nominal price levels with a larger group of holders now able to realize gains, increasing the amount of supply that buyers may have to absorb during another push higher.
The Crypto Times previously reported that Glassnode identified $81,000-$86,000 as a key Bitcoin supply zone during the August recovery. The region contains several cost-basis and derivatives-related levels that could influence price as Bitcoin attempts to move higher.
An initial cost-basis level sits around $80,800, while dealer gamma positioning turns negative near $82,300. Additional liquidation-related supply extends toward roughly $86,000, making the low-to-mid $80,000s a broader resistance region rather than a single breakout line.
ETF Inflows Are Returning as BTC Tests Resistance
Spot Bitcoin ETF demand remains one of the strongest sources of support behind the August recovery.
Glassnode found that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were absorbing around $290 million per day at the peak of the rally, although secondary-market turnover remained near $3 billion per day. The subdued turnover suggested strong inflows without the broader expansion in activity normally associated with a sustained high-velocity move.
ETF flows have nevertheless strengthened sharply in early September. According to Farside Investors’ Bitcoin ETF flow data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $236.5 million of net outflows on September 1, followed by $101.1 million of inflows on September 2 and $730.8 million on September 3.
Those three sessions produced approximately $595.4 million in combined net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $454 million of the September 3 total, while Fidelity’s FBTC brought in $74.4 million and Bitwise’s BITB added $24.8 million.
The significance of those flows increases as Bitcoin approaches overhead supply. Continued ETF demand while BTC trades above $80,000 would provide stronger evidence that spot buyers are absorbing sellers rather than price being supported mainly by another round of short liquidations.
Stablecoin Liquidity Adds Another Layer
Crypto-native liquidity also expanded during Bitcoin’s August rally.
In its September macro outlook, Bitfinex estimated the stablecoin float at roughly $304 billion while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeded $3 billion during August.
Despite those flows, Bitcoin did not fully participate in the broader equity risk rally, leading Bitfinex to argue that BTC has recently been trading more heavily on macro conditions than on crypto-native flows alone.
That distinction is important for September. ETF demand and stablecoin liquidity can support pullbacks, but they may not be enough to force Bitcoin through the $81,000-$86,000 supply zone if Treasury yields and the dollar continue moving against risk assets.
Strong Payrolls Put Fed Risk Back in Focus
The macro backdrop became less supportive on Friday after the U.S. labor market delivered a considerably stronger result than markets had expected.
The economy added 162,000 nonfarm jobs in August, while unemployment remained unchanged at 4.1%, according to the official Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% during the month and 3.1% from a year earlier.
Bitcoin initially fell below $80,000 as traders increased expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy. The Crypto Times reported after the payroll release that the stronger jobs print pushed rate-hike expectations higher while Treasury yields also rose.
Stronger employment does not directly weaken Bitcoin. The pressure comes from what it allows the Federal Reserve to do if inflation remains elevated. A resilient labor market gives policymakers more room to maintain restrictive monetary policy, which can lift Treasury yields and the dollar while reducing liquidity available to risk-sensitive assets.
Treasury Yields Remain a Major Bitcoin Risk
The relationship between Bitcoin and bond yields became particularly visible during the August rally.
Glassnode found that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed back toward 4.8%, erasing the relief created by the earlier Treasury buyback announcement within eight trading sessions. The move in sovereign yields coincided with Bitcoin stalling beneath long-term supply.
Bitfinex is also watching real yields closely. Its September macro framework identifies the 2.5% area on the 10-year real yield as an important risk threshold if yields remain above that level rather than merely touching it.
That creates a measurable macro condition for Bitcoin. ETF demand can remain positive, but a sustained rise in real yields would make the broader environment less supportive for a move through the $81,000-$86,000 supply zone.
September 9 Treasury Buybacks Add Another Liquidity Test
The Treasury market will get another important test before CPI and the Federal Reserve meeting.
The U.S. Treasury announced on August 19 that it will at least double the size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated nominal securities beginning September 9.
Maximum buybacks in both the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors will increase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, with the larger program remaining in place through November 4.
The earlier expansion briefly eased pressure on longer-dated Treasury yields while Bitcoin accelerated higher in August. If the September operations again push yields lower, BTC could regain some of the liquidity support behind that rally; if yields remain elevated, the restrictive macro backdrop would remain intact.
CPI Becomes the Next Major Bitcoin Catalyst
Friday’s payroll report removed one major uncertainty, but markets still have a crucial inflation reading before the Federal Reserve decides on rates.
The official BLS September calendar shows that August PPI will be released on September 10, followed by CPI on September 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The Federal Reserve will then meet on September 15-16, according to its official FOMC calendar. The September meeting is also associated with a new Summary of Economic Projections, giving markets an updated view of policymakers’ expected rate path.
After Friday’s stronger employment report, softer inflation would provide the clearest route toward easing pressure on Bitcoin. Cooling CPI could lower expectations for another rate increase and pull Treasury yields away from recent highs, while another firm inflation reading would create the opposite setup.
Prediction Markets Price Both $75K and $90K
Prediction-market positioning reinforces the view that September could produce large moves on both sides of Bitcoin’s current range.
On Polymarket’s September Bitcoin market, traders have continued to price meaningful odds for both another move above the low-$80,000s and a pullback into the mid-$70,000s.
The upside ladder extends from $82,500 through $85,000, $87,500 and $90,000, while downside contracts include $75,000, $72,500 and $70,000. Because the contracts resolve when Bitcoin touches a specified level during September rather than at month-end, the outcomes are not mutually exclusive.
That makes the market more useful as a volatility map than as a conventional month-end forecast. Bitcoin could fall into the mid-$70,000s before later recovering into the low-$80,000s during the same month.
$72K-$75K Forms the Deeper Support Zone
Bitcoin’s deeper downside range is supported by several separate market structures.
A September 2 CryptoTimes analysis of Bitcoin’s Cycle Momentum indicator found that BTC was trading above its major daily moving averages, including a 20-day EMA near $74,610 and a 200-day EMA around $72,327.
Those averages create another layer of support between roughly $72,000 and $75,000 if the current $76,000 cost-basis region fails. The overlap is notable because the 200-day EMA sits close to the broader low-$70,000 support area identified across on-chain and prediction-market data.
A move into that region would represent a deeper retracement, but it would not automatically erase the broader August recovery. The more important question would be whether spot demand returns before Bitcoin reaches the short-term holder cost basis near $70,000.
September Seasonality Remains a Secondary Risk
Bitcoin also enters the month with a historically weak seasonal record, although recent years have become less consistently bearish.
Bitcoin’s September seasonality found that the previous three Septembers all finished higher despite the month’s weaker long-term average return.
That makes seasonality a secondary factor rather than a standalone bearish forecast. This September also differs from many previous years because Bitcoin enters the month immediately after a 24.9% rally, with ETF demand, Treasury liquidity operations and a highly concentrated U.S. macro calendar all influencing the market simultaneously.
What Would Put Bitcoin on Track for $90K?
The bullish September scenario begins with Bitcoin continuing to defend the $75,000-$76,500 region, where active-investor cost basis and the late-August consolidation overlap.
BTC would then need to regain sustained acceptance above $80,000 and absorb the larger $81,000-$86,000 supply zone identified by Glassnode. Continued ETF inflows would strengthen that move by showing that spot demand is absorbing profitable supply rather than price rising mainly through short covering.
A simultaneous decline in Treasury and real yields would provide another important confirmation. If CPI cools and the Fed becomes less hawkish while ETF demand remains firm, the $85,000-$90,000 region would become increasingly relevant during September.
What Would Bring $72K Back Into Focus?
The downside scenario begins if Bitcoin loses the mid-$76,000 cost-basis region and fails to attract sufficient demand near $75,000.
A deeper decline would shift attention toward $72,000-$73,000, where the 200-day EMA and other longer-term technical levels begin to converge. That scenario would strengthen if ETF flows reverse while Treasury yields continue rising and inflation remains firm.
Such a combination would remove an important source of spot demand at the same time that broader liquidity conditions become more restrictive, increasing the likelihood that Bitcoin tests the lower end of its September range.
Bitcoin’s September Range Is Taking Shape
Bitcoin therefore enters the rest of September with a broad but increasingly defined structure.
The $75,000-$76,500 region remains the first important support area, while $72,000-$73,000 forms the deeper level if the current consolidation breaks lower. Above price, Bitcoin first needs to establish itself beyond $80,000 before confronting the heavier $81,000-$86,000 supply zone.
Clearing that region while ETF demand remains firm would strengthen the case for a move toward $87,500-$90,000. The next phase will be shaped by both Bitcoin-specific demand and macro conditions, with Treasury buybacks on September 9, CPI on September 11 and the Fed decision on September 16 forming the main near-term sequence.
September does not end with the Fed, the BEA release calendar shows that Personal Income and Outlays for August, including the PCE price index, is scheduled for September 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET, leaving another major inflation update before month-end.
For now, August’s 24.9% rally remains structurally intact, but September will determine whether Bitcoin can turn that repricing into a sustained recovery or whether the market first needs to retest the cost basis built during the summer.
Also Read: U.S. Payrolls Jump 162,000, But Why Is Bitcoin Price Dropping Below $80K?
