Indonesia has blocked access to Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market, after a politically charged wager on the possible early end of President Prabowo Subianto’s tenure went viral on social media.
The bet appeared on Polymarket on May 21 — one day after Prabowo announced plans to tighten government control over the country’s major commodity exports, a move that caught investors, traders, and reportedly even some of his own officials off guard. The announcement resurfaced concerns about the credibility and transparency of policymaking under the former general’s administration.
The wager, which Polymarket promoted on X, offered three timeframes for when Prabowo might leave office: end of May, June, or December. The end-of-December outcome carried the highest implied probability at 12%, and the market had attracted more than $44,000 in trading volume. Prabowo’s term does not expire until October 2029.
Government Response
According to a bloomberg report, Indonesia’s Communications and Digital Ministry moved to block the platform issuing a statement that classified Polymarket as a form of online gambling.
“The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia,” the ministry said, adding that platforms facilitating wagers on specific event outcomes remain classified as gambling even when packaged as “prediction markets.”
The ministry also said it would track social media accounts promoting the platform — a notable escalation beyond simply blocking access to the site itself.
Part of a Broader Indonesian Crackdown
The Polymarket ban is not an isolated action. Since taking office in October 2024, Prabowo has intensified Indonesia’s crackdown on online betting, with the government blocking access to approximately 3.4 million websites and digital content deemed to facilitate gambling activity.
Despite a national ban, online gambling remains a massive problem in the country. Transactions linked to online gambling totaled approximately 286 trillion rupiah ($16 billion) last year, according to Indonesia’s Financial Transaction Reports and Analysis Center.
Prediction Markets Under Global Pressure
Indonesia joins a growing list of jurisdictions restricting or banning prediction markets as platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have surged in popularity. Polymarket is now restricted or banned in over 33 jurisdictions as of mid-2026, with regulatory action accelerating sharply this year. The reasons broadly fall into three categories: unlicensed gambling prohibitions, bans on political event betting, and state betting monopoly protections.
Singapore and Brazil have outright banned prediction markets. Taiwan, Thailand, China, and Japan have implemented access limitations. In India, platforms have continued signing up customers despite regulatory warnings that they are operating illegally.
Even in the United States, where no federal ban exists, Polymarket has attracted regulatory scrutiny. Last month, a US Army Special Forces master sergeant was charged with trading on classified information about the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — bets that authorities say netted $400,000.
The core tension is consistent across jurisdictions: prediction markets sit in a gray zone between information tools and gambling platforms, and the line shifts depending on local law. When those markets touch politically sensitive subjects — as the Prabowo wager did — governments tend to respond quickly.
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