Key Highlights
- A new Polymarket trader turned $30,000 into $436,759 by betting on Maduro’s capture before it was publicly announced.
- The trader’s profit has raised concerns about insider trading in prediction markets.
- Lawmakers, including Rep. Ritchie Torres, are planning to introduce rules to limit political figures from betting on real-life events.
A new trader on Polymarket made a huge profit after betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The trader put in $30,000 on Friday night, shortly before U.S. President Donald Trump announced early Saturday morning that Maduro had been captured by U.S. forces.
Following the announcement, the account’s profit jumped to $436,759.61 in less than 24 hours. The timing of the gains has drawn scrutiny within the crypto space, with discussions focusing on the possibility of insider trading on the prediction market, as the bet came before the public knew about the operation.
In an X post on Saturday, Financial investor Joe Pompliano highlighted the Polymarket incident.
“A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro’s exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged,” he wrote.
Polymarket is a website where people can bet on real events, like elections or world news. The prices of these bets change depending on how many people think an event will happen. In this case, the market’s prediction of Maduro leaving office stayed very low for weeks, but suddenly rose sharply just before the capture. However, the timing makes people wonder if the trader knew something before the rest of the public.
The U.S. operation reportedly targeted key military sites, including Fort Tiuna and several airfields. Maduro and his wife were taken into U.S. custody, and authorities said they would face charges for drug-related crimes. While many Americans were shocked by the news, traders who acted fast on Polymarket made thousands of dollars.
Calls for regulation
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to place “stocks” on real-life events. Prices change depending on the balance of “yes” and “no” bets. While these markets are legal, the idea that someone could profit from private knowledge of a major political operation is controversial.
Lawmakers are now looking at ways to regulate participation by political figures. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) plans to introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, which would restrict federal officials and some political insiders from betting on events like this.
The restriction would be applied to buying, selling, or exchanging prediction market contracts tied to government policy, government action, or political outcomes on platforms engaged in interstate commerce.
Also Read: Crypto Markets Brace for Volatility After U.S. Strike in Venezuela
