Key Highlights
- Polymarket removed its “Nuclear weapon detonation by…?” market without issuing a public explanation.
- The contract had accumulated over $838,000 in volume across multiple timelines before being quietly archived.
- The removal follows $529M in Iran war bets on Polymarket and a parallel controversy at Kalshi, where a “death carveout” clause left traders furious after Khamenei’s death was confirmed.
Polymarket has quietly archived its nuclear detonation prediction market after a wave of public backlash, removing the contract without issuing any formal statement. The move came just hours after the platform promoted odds on a now deleted post on X suggesting a 22% probability of a nuclear weapon detonating before year-end — a post that drew immediate and fierce criticism.
The market, titled “Nuclear weapon detonation by…?”, included contracts tied to multiple deadlines: March 31, June 30, and before 2027. Prior to its removal, the contracts had accumulated over $838,000 in trading volume. A similar 2025-dated contract alone had drawn more than $1.7 million in bets, while a 2023 version recorded nearly $700,000.
Journalist David Sirota was among the first to call out the contract publicly, writing on X: “Polymarket has created a market that would monetize a nuclear attack amid increasing concerns that bets are happening among government insiders who can make military decisions.”
The backlash was swift, and as a result Polymarket archived the market without comment. The prediction platform has not issued a public statement explaining the decision or announcing changes to its broader listings policy.
The market’s removal also coincides with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)— which oversees regulated prediction markets — advancing proposed rules that would bar exchanges from listing event contracts tied to war, terrorism, and assassination. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig recently said the Commission plans to issue clearer guidance on prediction markets in the near future.
The bigger picture: Iran war bets and insider trading
The nuclear market removal does not exist in isolation. It arrives in the middle of a period of scrutiny for prediction markets.
When the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, Polymarket had already been running a series of contracts on the conflict for months. The platform’s largest market on whether the U.S. would strike Iran had accumulated $529 million in total volume. Additionally, separate market tracking whether Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would leave office by March 31 drew $61.3 million in volume and resolved at 100% after Iranian state media confirmed his death.
What made those numbers explosive was the timing. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps flagged six wallets, most newly created, that collectively netted $1.2 million on Polymarket in the hours before the strikes began.
Apart from this, in January, an anonymous trader made more than $400,000 on suspiciously well-timed bets ahead of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s arrest. Israeli authorities have also charged two individuals with allegedly using classified military intelligence to place bets on a prior Iran conflict on the platform.
The Trump family’s ties add another layer of complexity. Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to Polymarket, and his venture capital firm 1789 Capital has invested in the business. The Donald Trump administration has also dropped two federal investigations into Polymarket that were opened under former President Biden.
Kalshi’s controversial market
Regulated U.S. competitor Kalshi has also been fighting a separate but related fire. The platform had run a market on whether Khamenei would be removed as supreme leader, drawing more than $54 million in bets. The contract included a pre-defined “death carveout” — a clause stating that if the leader left office solely because he died, the market would settle not at full payout, but at the last traded price before his death was confirmed.
The carveout exists because U.S. commodity trading laws prohibit markets where traders can directly profit from death, war, or assassination. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and says it bans insider participation.
When Khamenei’s death was confirmed, Kalshi halted trading, invoked the clause, and settled positions at the last pre-death price. Trader fury erupted immediately — particularly because Kalshi had heavily promoted the market on social media in the days leading up to the strikes.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour addressed the backlash directly on X: “The market rules were not changed. The death carveout and settlement based on last-traded-price were part of the published market rules from the outset.”
In an unusual move, Kalshi chose to make all affected users whole, reimbursing all trading fees and covering net losses at a cost of approximately $2.2 million.
Lawmakers are moving
The combined fallout from both platforms has accelerated legislative attention. Democratic senators led by Adam Schiff sent a letter to the CFTC last month urging action against contracts tied to war and political violence, setting a March 9 deadline for a response. Senator Chris Murphy said he is drafting legislation to ban prediction markets that could be exploited by insiders with access to sensitive information.
For an industry that spent 2025 presenting itself as a legitimate forecasting tool capable of outperforming polls and media, the question now is whether that pitch survives a week in which its biggest players were caught either profiting from a war — or quietly deleting the evidence that they tried to.
Also Read: Iran Will Close Strait of Hormuz: Polymarket Odds Climb to 66%
