Key Highlights
- Tarek Mansour said Kalshi “followed the rules” after backlash over its Iran leadership market and denied enabling profit from war.
- Kalshi reimbursed all fees and net losses, absorbing an estimated $2.2M loss to make traders whole.
- Polymarket processed over $529M in Iran-related bets, drawing scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran has pushed prediction markets into one of their most difficult moments, raising fresh questions about whether real-world conflict should be tradable at all.
As strikes hit Iranian targets and reports circulated that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was no longer alive, activity surged on prediction platforms as traders rushed to adjust bets tied to political outcomes in Tehran.
The surge of activity, and how it was handled, has reignited a long-simmering debate over whether markets tied to war and political violence can ever operate responsibly.
Two platforms stood at the center of the controversy: offshore crypto-native exchange Polymarket and US-regulated platform Kalshi.
A stress test for a growing industry
Prediction markets have spent the past year pushing into the mainstream, presenting themselves as tools that can surface real-time probabilities for elections, policy decisions, and macroeconomic events.
The pitch has attracted major investors, regulatory engagement, and a sharp rise in trading volume.
That momentum was abruptly tested by the Iran strikes.
On Polymarket, contracts linked to possible US military action against Iran generated more than $529 million in trading volume, as per a Bloomberg report. Analysts tracking blockchain data pointed to unusual activity, including sizable bets placed by newly created wallets shortly before major developments took place or became public.
When confirmation circulated that Iran’s supreme leader was no longer alive, Polymarket resolved its market tracking whether he would cease to hold office to “yes,” triggering payouts and swift criticism from lawmakers and market observers. Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.
Kalshi’s regulatory tightrope
Kalshi’s handling of a similar contract followed a different path — one shaped by US regulatory constraints.
Its market, which asked whether Iran’s leader would leave office, attracted more than $50 million in trading volume. The contract included a pre-defined “death carveout,” stating that if the leader exited office solely because he lost his life, the market would not resolve as a binary outcome. Instead, positions would settle at the last traded price before the event.
Such provisions exist because derivatives tied directly to war, terrorism, or assassination are generally viewed as impermissible on regulated exchanges overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
As reports of Khamenei’s death spread on Saturday, trading activity intensified. Kalshi issued clarifications, highlighted the contract on social media, and later halted trading altogether. Trader frustration mounted, particularly among those who believed the market should have resolved fully in their favor.
CEO addresses traders directly
Early Sunday, Kalshi Co-Founder and CEO Tarek Mansour published a detailed statement on X, responding to claims that the company had altered the rules after the fact.
“As an exchange, we resolve the market according to the rules, even when there is disagreement with the resolution.”
Mansour emphasized that the death carveout had been included from the outset and appeared in Kalshi’s official 2025 filing with the CFTC.
“The market rules were not changed. The death carveout and settlement based on last-traded-price were part of the published market rules from the outset.”
He acknowledged that some traders felt disadvantaged by the outcome but argued that deviating from the rules would undermine trust. “Changing settlement because one side is unhappy would break trust in the exchange.”
Mansour framed the carveout as both a compliance requirement and a moral boundary. “As a federally regulated prediction market, we are required and feel it is important not to enable direct profiting from war, assassination, terrorism, or other violent outcomes.”
Kalshi absorbs the loss
In an unusual move, Kalshi opted to make all users whole.
“No trader lost money on this market.”
The exchange reimbursed all trading fees and all net losses, including covering the difference for users whose settlement proceeds did not fully recoup their original position costs. According to a person familiar with the matter, the decision cost Kalshi approximately $2.2 million.
“Kalshi did not profit on this market,” Mansour wrote. “As a result, Kalshi incurred a substantial loss to make users whole.”
Political scrutiny intensifies
The episode unfolded just days after Democratic senators led by Adam Schiff sent a letter urging the CFTC to crack down on contracts tied to war and political violence. The letter set a March 9 deadline for a response — a date that now arrives amid heightened geopolitical tension.
Senator Chris Murphy went further, saying he is drafting legislation to ban what he called destabilizing prediction markets that could be exploited by insiders with access to sensitive information.
Even the industry’s own trade group, the Coalition for Prediction Markets, has stated that “contracts involving death have no place on American exchanges.”
A line the industry can’t ignore
For an industry built on the belief that anything measurable can be priced, the Iran strikes exposed a boundary that may be impossible to paper over with disclosures or carveouts.
Supporters argue that geopolitical contracts offer valuable signals and hedging tools for global businesses. Critics counter that when markets hinge on loss of life, the incentives become fundamentally misaligned.
Kalshi says it will revise how such contracts are presented, making exceptions more prominent and improving user clarity. Whether that will be enough remains an open question.
What is clear is that this weekend marked a turning point — one that could shape how far prediction markets are allowed to go.
Also Read: Weekly Wrap: Iran–Israel Crisis Shakes Crypto, $500M Liquidated as Bitcoin, Binance Hit
