Key Highlights
- XRP’s 365-day MVRV stands around -11.75%, while Dogecoin’s is near -19.26%, according to Santiment.
- Bitcoin, Ethereum and Chainlink have moved slightly above the 0% level on the same metric after the recent market rebound.
- XRP and DOGE have both rallied strongly over the past week, but their 365-day MVRV shows traders in the measured cohort remain underwater on average.
XRP and Dogecoin traders who became active over the past year remain underwater on average despite the crypto market’s sharp rebound, according to new on-chain data from Santiment.
Santiment said on September 23 that XRP’s 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) stood at approximately -11.75%, while Dogecoin’s was substantially lower at about -19.26%.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Chainlink, by comparison, have moved slightly above the 0% level, indicating that coins included in their respective 365-day cohorts are sitting on modest unrealized profits on average.
The split has emerged after a broad crypto recovery that pushed Bitcoin above $87,000 this week and produced double-digit weekly gains across several large-cap altcoins. Dogecoin jumped 12% in 24 hours as trading volume reached $1.84 billion, while XRP gained alongside the broader market.
XRP and Dogecoin traders remain underwater
Santiment highlighted XRP and DOGE because their 365-day MVRV readings remain considerably below those of BTC, ETH and LINK even after the recent recovery.
The 365-day version of MVRV considers coins or tokens that have moved at least once during the previous 365 days. It compares their current market value with their realized value, providing an estimate of the unrealized profit or loss held by that cohort.
A negative reading therefore means the measured coins are below their aggregate cost basis on average. Santiment interprets deeply negative MVRV readings as periods when fewer holders are sitting on profits that can be realized through selling, although the metric does not by itself establish that a market bottom has formed.
Santiment has previously used the same metric to identify periods of particularly weak holder profitability. In April, XRP’s 365-day MVRV had fallen to roughly -41%, its lowest level since the aftermath of the FTX collapse in November 2022.
The latest -11.75% reading shows that much of that deficit has been recovered, but the yearly cohort has not yet returned to break-even.
DOGE MVRV remains weaker despite recent rally
Dogecoin shows an even larger gap.
DOGE recently rallied above $0.10 after trading around $0.08 in mid-September. CoinGecko data shows the token reached as high as $0.1042 during its latest 24-hour window before retreating to around $0.092. Its seven-day move remained substantially positive following the earlier rally.
That price recovery has not been enough to erase losses for the 365-day MVRV cohort, which Santiment placed at -19.26%.
The Crypto Times previously reported DOGE at $0.0957 on September 21 after a 12% daily rally, compared with a seven-day range at the time of $0.07837 to $0.09784.
The combination illustrates the difference between recent price performance and longer-term holder profitability: an asset can rally sharply over several days while investors who acquired coins at higher prices earlier in the year remain underwater.
BTC, ETH and LINK tell a different story
Santiment’s comparison shows Bitcoin, Ethereum and Chainlink slightly above the 0% line on the 365-day MVRV measure, putting their measured cohorts in modest profit.
Bitcoin was trading around $84,327 after reaching a 24-hour high of $87,251, according to CoinGecko. BTC remains about 11.4% higher over seven days following its recent breakout. Bitcoin crossed $87,000 for the first time since January.
Ethereum was near $2,668 with a 24-hour range between roughly $2,643 and $2,787, while Chainlink traded near $12.23 after reaching $13.21 during the same period.
That broader recovery began last week as gains spread beyond Bitcoin, the crypto market rallied as XRP, Ethereum and other major altcoins joined Bitcoin’s rebound.
What does the negative MVRV mean for XRP and DOGE?
Santiment argues that assets with substantially negative MVRV readings can have less profit-taking pressure because a larger share of the measured cohort would need to sell at a loss.
That does not mean XRP or DOGE must continue higher. MVRV is an on-chain measure of holder cost basis rather than a price forecast, and negative readings can persist while prices continue falling.
For now, the data shows a clear divergence: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Chainlink’s 365-day cohorts have returned to modest profitability, while XRP and particularly Dogecoin still have more ground to recover before their corresponding MVRV readings return to zero.
Also Read: XRP Price Prediction 2026, 2027–2030: Can XRP Reach $5 or $10?
