Key Highlights
- CryptoQuant’s realized P/L ratio fell to a 43-month low, a level that has historically appeared near Bitcoin market bottoms.
- Glassnode says Bitcoin is still in a risk-off environment, but on-chain data suggests a potential market bottom may be forming.
- Despite recent ETF outflows, analysts believe Bitcoin could be moving closer to a recovery as key indicators begin to improve.
Bitcoin could be getting closer to the end of its latest market downturn as new blockchain data shows signs that have often appeared before a price recovery.
Analytics firms CryptoQuant and Glassnode both have said some important on-chain indicators are beginning to change, even though the market is still under pressure.
The data comes after Bitcoin price has been falling for months, with Bitcoin ETF also recording major outflows, leading many to ask whether the biggest cryptocurrency may finally be close to finding a bottom.
Will Bitcoin Bounce Back?
CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss (P/L) ratio has fallen to -0.35, its lowest level in 43 months. The metric tracks the share of Bitcoin being held at a realized profit or loss compared to the total circulating supply.
According to the analytics firm, the indicator has historically identified major market bottoms with remarkable accuracy.
“Historically the indicator has marked BTC bottoms with extreme precision,” CryptoQuant said.
The last time the realized P/L ratio reached a similar level was in December 2022, shortly after the collapse of FTX pushed Bitcoin below $16,000. CryptoQuant also pointed out that the same signal appeared during the 2015 and 2019 bear markets. In both cases, Bitcoin later started a strong recovery after the market found its bottom.
Glassnode sees a possible turning point
Glassnode shared a similar view. The company said its Vector framework still shows that Bitcoin is in a Strong Risk-Off environment, meaning investors are still being careful and avoiding risky assets. However, it added that the data beneath the surface is starting to improve.
“Bottoms are formed by a shift in regime,” Glassnode said. “The Vector framework is still signaling a Strong Risk-Off environment for Bitcoin. However, under the surface, metrics are beginning to pivot. A potential bottom may be forming.”
Bitcoin price starts to recover
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has already shown some signs of recovery. At press time, Bitcoin is trading for $62,584, representing a 1.03% recovery over the last 24 hours from an intraday low of $61,674.
The cryptocurrency has gained more than 3% since falling to nearly $58,190 on June 25. However, it’s still down about 50% from its all time high of over $126k which it reached in October 2025.
Analysts remain hopeful
Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston also believes the current market deserves close attention. He said Bitcoin is trading only about 16% above its realized price, which is the average price at which all Bitcoin on the network last moved. In past market cycles, prices near this level have often been followed by strong gains over the next six to twelve months.
“Waiting for ‘the bottom’ is a wonderful plan with one flaw. The bottom never announces itself,” Livingston said.
There are also signs that investor confidence may slowly be returning. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded $221.7 million in net inflows, ending a 10-session streak of withdrawals after softer U.S. economic data eased concerns over future Federal Reserve policy.
Some analysts are also looking at Bitcoin’s history. Crypto analyst Cyclop said Bitcoin has posted gains of more than 20% during every previous July bear market, while analyst Ardi noted that Bitcoin bottoms have often taken around a year to fully form.
“Realistically, I think we’re entering the final few months of this bear market.” Ardi said. Still, both warned that history does not guarantee the same outcome every time.
For now, the latest on-chain data suggests the market may be entering a new phase. While uncertainty remains, analysts say several key indicators are beginning to move in a direction that has previously appeared before Bitcoin started its next recovery.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Surges Above $62K as Spot ETFs End 10-Day Outflow Streak
