On-chain investigator ZachXBT has published an expanded warning regarding Rain Protocol (RAIN), the prediction market token that has reached approximately $8.8 billion in market capitalization. The post escalates an earlier warning from May 31 by adding specific wallet addresses, transaction timestamps, and detailed allegations about the project’s connections.
ZachXBT, who has built a track record exposing market manipulation and insider control schemes across multiple 2026 tokens, including RAVE, EDGE, SIREN, and MYX, has urged followers to “avoid Rain Protocol at all costs.” The claims in his post are his own allegations and have not been independently verified by The Crypto Times. RAIN Protocol has not publicly responded to the allegations at the time of writing.
What ZachXBT Alleges
In his post, ZachXBT writes that he traced the RAIN team addresses on-chain and that “the source of funds originate via the Gems hot wallet and CEX deposit addresses that previously moved funds for failed projects like Data Ownership Protocol (DOP) & TOMI at the same time indicating potential overlap between teams.”
The investigator identifies specific wallet addresses and transaction timestamps as supporting evidence:
- Address
0xa35e61cb836ae15f2d7d400efb49bda7222b98bc, which ZachXBT describes as linked to the RAIN deployer, allegedly sent dust to address0xbac1on October 14, 2025 at 3:31:47 PM UTC. - Address
0xa810e14e2ee46e1e25e56bcf280208b78242d5d1, which ZachXBT describes as linked to the TOMI team multisig and CEX deposit0x6a6, allegedly sent dust to the same0xbac1address 36 seconds earlier, at 3:31:11 PM UTC on October 14, 2025. - Address
0xbac19cb634c34baf7670263ccc74806a2d004fb0allegedly received funds in December 2025 from0xf205, which ZachXBT says had received funds from a DOP multisig. - Address
0xa81allegedly transferred funds in February 2025 to0x2db0e5d3678ace8db1c400844b2ed9a0af331a66, which ZachXBT says were sent to the same CEX deposit address used by DOP’s deployer (0x366).
The investigator also alleges that RAIN’s price “appears it is being manipulated onchain with addresses linked to the deployer via Uni V3 LP with spot transfers obfuscated via Gems hot wallet,” and identifies two additional addresses — 0x7c10f934c84a0aefaffd3334463c245a311cc967 and 0x7706342d38d3fd957c7061ac87a98f21f1cb53aa — as part of this alleged activity.
The Enlivex Treasury and TVL Questions
ZachXBT’s post also raises questions about the financial structure supporting RAIN. He notes that RAIN has a Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) named Enlivex—a Nasdaq-listed biotech company that announced a $212 million treasury strategy in November 2025 to deploy capital into the Rain Protocol ecosystem.
According to ZachXBT, Enlivex “has no comps to Kalshi or Polymarket to justify the amount.” For context, Polymarket is currently valued at approximately $15 billion and processed over $62 billion in cumulative notional trading volume, while Kalshi is valued at around $22 billion and is CFTC-regulated.
He also points to DefiLlama data showing RAIN’s TVL at $27.2 million on Arbitrum, noting that this figure is “entirely in its own illiquid native token” and that the protocol generates approximately $1 million in annual fees. The implication ZachXBT draws is that the on-chain user base and revenue profile do not appear consistent.
The Hogeg Connection ZachXBT Alleges
The most significant claim in ZachXBT’s expanded post is the alleged link between RAIN’s network and Moshe Hogeg, the Israeli founder behind multiple previously failed crypto ventures.
ZachXBT writes that “TOMI, DOP & Sirin Labs all trace back to a highly controversial Israeli founder named Moshe Hogeg, who was detained for fraud in 2021 and later accused by law enforcement of a $290M fraudulent crypto scheme in 2023 as well as facing multiple lawsuits from former business partners and employees.”
Hogeg’s legal history is documented in established public records independent of ZachXBT’s post. Hogeg was arrested by Israeli police on November 18, 2021 along with seven other suspects on charges including fraud, money laundering, and sexual offenses. He was released to house arrest on a $22 million bail bond on December 14, 2021. In July 2022, Hogeg was re-arrested for failing to fulfill his bail bond requirement.
In August 2023, the Israeli National Fraud Investigations Unit (NAU) recommended that prosecutors indict Hogeg for defrauding investors of $290 million across four cryptocurrency projects. The same month, Israeli police announced the closure of the sexual offense case against Hogeg, citing insufficient evidence to justify an indictment.
Hogeg has denied the financial fraud allegations. His past ventures include Sirin Labs (the blockchain smartphone startup that raised $158 million in 2017 with celebrity endorsements from Lionel Messi), Stox (a prediction market protocol that raised approximately $34 million via ICO), Leadcoin (which raised approximately $58 million via ICO), and Singulariteam. Hogeg has also identified himself publicly as a co-founder of TomiNet/Tomi, the Web3 project ZachXBT references as TOMI in his RAIN allegations.
There is no public record connecting Hogeg directly to Rain Protocol. ZachXBT’s allegation is that the on-chain wallet trails between RAIN, DOP, and TOMI suggest potential overlap between the teams involved.
Gems.vip and the Launchpad Question
ZachXBT also identifies Gems.vip as the launchpad that has hosted multiple of the projects he references, including RAIN and DOP, and writes that it “appears to be launching a presale for Kai Platform soon.”
He further notes that Data Ownership Protocol (DOP) “reportedly raised $162M in a 2024 token sale” and that “Kai was recently announced to have acquired DOP, but it’s unclear where those funds went with numerous retail investor complaints on social media.”
These claims are ZachXBT’s allegations.
The Broader 2026 Pattern
ZachXBT’s RAIN warning fits within a broader pattern of on-chain investigator alerts about top-market-cap tokens in 2026. As TCT previously reported, the EDGE token of edgeX crashed 77% on June 2 following ZachXBT’s allegations of concentrated insider control of supply. Earlier in the year, the RAVE token collapsed more than 95% from its peak after ZachXBT identified concentrated supply control across initial distribution addresses. Other 2026 tokens flagged by ZachXBT in similar warnings include SIREN, MYX, SKYAI, and RIVER.
The common pattern in these flagged cases, according to ZachXBT, has been low-float, high-FDV tokens where a small number of addresses control overwhelming portions of supply, where the team has a limited track record in crypto, and where price action appears coordinated through liquidity provision and CEX-routed transfers. ZachXBT has also separately accused Bitget of enabling market makers to run supply control schemes, naming RAVE, RIVER, SIREN, and LAB as victims.
According to data referenced in third-party reports following ZachXBT’s initial May 31 warning, 99.97% of RAIN’s circulating supply is held by 81 wallets.
What Comes Next
ZachXBT closed his post with a broader observation about the state of crypto markets in 2026: “In recent months I have expressed concern about the growing trend of projects aggressively manipulating the price without any repercussions. I do not advise trading them under any circumstances.”
The immediate questions for the market are how RAIN Protocol’s team responds to the allegations, whether centralized exchanges that list RAIN take any action, and whether Enlivex issues any clarifying statement. Given the size of the position and the public-company structure, Enlivex is subject to U.S. securities disclosure obligations that may require a response if the allegations affect material disclosure.
ZachXBT’s track record on similar warnings suggests his alerts often precede price corrections rather than follow them. In the RAVE, EDGE, and SIREN cases, warnings preceded crashes ranging from 61% to over 95% within weeks. Whether RAIN follows that pattern, or whether the project produces evidence countering ZachXBT’s allegations, will likely become clear in the coming days.
The Crypto Times has reached out to Rain Protocol for comment and will update this story when a response is received.
Also Read: EDGE Crashes 77% as edgeX Blames Manipulation, ZachXBT Demands Transparency
