Analyst Willy Woo Says Bitcoin Bear Market Is Gaining Strength

Bitcoin continues to struggle, with it trading in a choppy range around the $67,000–$70,000 level as broader market sentiment sours and outflows from crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) persist. Currently, investors are grappling with renewed concerns over macro liquidity tightening and persistent whale selling pressure that has kept downward momentum alive since late 2025.

Amid this, prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo has issued a stark warning to Bitcoin (BTC) investors that the cryptocurrency’s bear trend has continued to build momentum rather than fade. In his latest X post, Woo pointed to rising volatility as a critical signal used by quantitative traders to identify market direction. 

He argued the uptick shows Bitcoin is still deepening its bear phase, not merely correcting within a broader bull run. 

“BTC entered its bear market when vol spiked upwards quickly,” Woo said, adding, “Vol [Volume] then continues to climb, meaning the bear trend is strengthening. Then vol finds a peak in the mid to late phase bear market… that’s when the bear trend starts to weaken.” 

Market players expecting a reversal 

Woo’s remarks come amid various traders waiting for a bullish reversal, clinging to hopes that the recent dip below $70,000 marks just another healthy pullback in an eventual uptrend. Many point to technical levels holding around $65,000–$68,000 as potential support zones for a bounce, while others scan for signs of renewed institutional inflows or macro shifts to spark momentum. 

Sentiment remains battered, with crypto fear gauges hovering near depressed extremes and on-chain metrics showing persistent outflows, yet a vocal contingent of perma-bulls dismiss the weakness as temporary noise ahead of the next leg higher. 

At the time of publishing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,600, with a 24 hour volume of $33.40 billion. While its down from January highs, it is still above deeper February lows of near $59,800, leaving room for optimism among those betting on a swift recovery.

While some traders are clinging onto hopes of a near-term rebound, Woo’s data-driven take has fueled debate among both, the coin holders and perma-bulls. As of now, Bitcoin remains down sharply year-to-date while testing sentiment in what many now view as an extended bear market. 

Woo’s typical “Bear Market” signs

In a subsequent thread post, Woo frames the typical bear market in three phases. The first phase is where Bitcoin liquidity is ‘broken down’ and BTC price starts following a downtrend. Woo notes that Bitcoin is small compared to other store-of-value assets and primary market movements, especially from ‘smart money,’ tends to drive larger follow-up momentum. 

“In this phase perma bulls will blindly say it’s a correction inside a broader bull market but will not give you any hard evidence of capital flowing in, they will only give narrative,” Woo emphasized. 

Perma bull (or permabull) is the label for investors who maintain an extremely persistent, often unwavering optimistic outlook on an asset, while believing prices will keep rising regardless of the current market conditions. 

In the second phase, it’s global equities that turn bearish. Given the scale of capital this sector consists of, it moves slowly while tanking the market. According to Woo, this is the phase where “all risk assets are falling and there’s no doubt we are in a bear market.”  

Then comes the third phase where fresh liquidity starts to pour into Bitcoin once again while the outflows start to stabilize after peaking to record highs. Woo asserts that this is when the final capitulation occurs and investors return to the market. 

The analyst believes that we are currently at the end of phase one and much closer to the beginning of phase two. 

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