Key Highlights
- Wintermute confirmed it is providing liquidity on prediction markets, acting as a market maker.
- The firm is helping these platforms run more smoothly by reducing spreads and improving price stability.
- The firm said prediction markets are shifting from simple forecasting tools to event-risk trading platforms.
Crypto market maker Wintermute today announced that it is providing liquidity on prediction markets as it expands its role into the fast-moving market.
According to the official release, the London-based firm said that it is quoting two-sided prices on event contract platforms, which means it is always ready to both buy and sell contracts. The move is expected to fix the gap where they are strong trading demand but with weak liquidity.
Providing liquidity for the market
Wintermute says it handles more than $3.5 trillion in trading volume each year and operates across more than 70 exchanges around the world. In this new role, the firm is not betting on outcomes of events. The company said the prediction market venues where it is active collectively record more than $20 billion in monthly trading volume as of early 2026.
Instead of wagering on events directly, the firm said it will post buy and sell prices all the time across contracts. This setup is expected to reduce spreads and make pricing more stable during active trading periods.
Jake Ostrovskis, Wintermute’s Head of OTC Trading, described the current state of prediction markets as a mismatch between demand and market depth. “Prediction markets have the demand profile of a major asset class but the liquidity profile of an early-stage one,” Ostrovskis said. “For these markets to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, they need sustained two-sided liquidity.”
In simple terms, he is saying that many people want to trade in these markets, but there is still not enough strong buying and selling activity. Wintermute is stepping in to fix that gap.
Why liquidity matters for prices
The firm stated that it is helping prediction markets move beyond just being forecasting tools. It described them as becoming places where traders can price “event risk,” meaning real-world outcomes that affect markets directly. Instead of using stocks, currencies, or crypto as indirect ways to trade risk, these markets allow people to trade the event itself.
Wintermute also pointed out that prediction markets are closely tied to crypto systems. Many of these platforms use stablecoins and blockchain networks. This means they need systems for custody, settlement, and risk control, which Wintermute already works with in other crypto markets like spot trading, derivatives, decentralized finance, and OTC trading.
Growing competition in the market
This comes as competition in prediction markets continues to grow. Kalshi, one of the major markets, has emphasized that its business is based in the United States, while Polymarket, another prediction platform, operates primarily offshore.
At the same time, regulatory moves are shaping the space. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently allowed Kalshi to offer Bitcoin perpetual futures in the United States, showing growing acceptance of new types of financial products.
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