Norwegian officials are investigating a possible leak after unusual betting activity on the Polymarket website appeared to predict the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner before it was announced.
The inquiry began when bets favoring Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado suddenly surged hours before her name was revealed in Oslo on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
The Nobel Institute confirmed the investigation after noticing the strange spike. “We’re looking into it,” Erik Aasheim, spokesman for the Nobel Institute, which manages the Peace Prize on behalf of the Norwegian Nobel Committee said.
According to data from Polymarket, bets on Machado began climbing just after midnight Thursday, Norwegian time. When the official announcement came at 11 a.m. Friday, the early gamblers had already made tens of thousands of dollars. Three accounts that mostly bet on Machado reportedly earned around $90,000.
One trader, known only as “6741,” allegedly opened a new account just before trading, netting about $53,500, according to crypto outlet Protos. The user also placed smaller side bets on other expected contenders, including Russian activist Yulia Navalnaya, environmentalist Greta Thunberg, and WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.
The five-member Nobel Committee had made its final decision on October 6, according to earlier Norwegian media reports. Machado was notified shortly after the public announcement in Oslo. She received the award for her long-standing efforts to promote democracy and challenge President Nicolás Maduro’s rule in Venezuela.
Polymarket Under the Spotlight
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction site where users bet on real-world events using cryptocurrency. The platform recently secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.
Earlier this year, Polymarket received approval to re-enter the U.S. market after clearing issues with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This isn’t the first time Polymarket has drawn attention for possible information leaks. Similar questions have been raised before when sudden trades appeared to mirror insider knowledge.
The current investigation seeks to determine whether someone connected to the Nobel process shared confidential information ahead of time.
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