US Recession Odds Drop to 26%, Will Bitcoin Price Recover?

Written By:
Shubh Vijay Ruia

Reviewed By:
Jahnu Jagtap

Us Recession Odds Drop To 26%, Will Bitcoin Price Recover

The ease in the aggressive trade measures has resulted in the decline of the possibility of a recession for the United States of America (USA) in 2025 to 26% chances today from 56% that was recorded on 06th of May 2025. This significant drop highlights a positive sentiment around the global market.

Additionally, the crypto community witnessed an increase in the trading volume, hinting at increasing optimism in the crypto space. However, the crypto records increased price volatility with top tokens failing to regain momentum. Adding to this, the market displays a slow action this week with top altcoins facing notable correction during this time.

Us Recession In 2025
US recession in 2025?, Source: Polymarket

As per the historic sentiments, whenever a sharp change has been observed in the “US recession in 2025?” chart, the crypto market has also witnessed increased price action within a short time frame. Taking an example of a major drop that was witnessed between 11th & 12th of May, the percentage dropped from 56% to 39%.

Bitcoin Reacts to Recession Fears

This resulted in the price of Bitcoin dropping from $104,701.07 to $102,569.44, a change of 2.13% within hours. However, during the recent drop from 30% to 26% that was recorded today, the crypto market defied the odds and witnessed a positive reversal.

Bitcoin Price Chart
Bitcoin Price Chart, Source: CoinMarketCap

Over the past 21 hours, the Bitcoin price has jumped to $105,106 from $100,550 that was recorded at 02:30 Am (IST). This shows a change in the pattern, indicating a mixed-price action for this crypto.

At the time of writing, the value of one BTC was $105,100.70 with an intraday change of 1.35%. Moreover, with a surge of 47.35%, it has recorded a volume of $62.59 billion. With this, the dominance of it has increased to 63.6457%.

How The Bitcoin Price Could Perform Next Week?

In case of a sustained bullish action, the Bitcoin price could continue recording its upward trajectory for the upcoming week. If the BTC price breakout of its important watch zone of $106,000, the immediate resistance levels for the BTC token are $108,000 and $110,000, respectively.

Negatively, a bearish setback may result in it retesting its important support level of $102,000. Furthermore, if the bulls fail to regain momentum at that point, it could further plunge toward its lower support zone of $100,000 during the upcoming week.

Also Read: BREAKING: Gemini Exchange Files for IPO After Circle’s NYSE Debut



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Shubh Vijay Ruia is a Technical and Research Analyst/Writer with 3 years of experience in cryptocurrency, stock markets, blockchain, Web3, and global commodities. He holds a BBA with a major in Marketing and certifications in Digital Marketing and Stock Market Analysis from MyCaptain. Shubh specializes in technical and on-chain analysis, offering data-driven insights to help readers understand market trends and digital assets with clarity.
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Jahnu Jagtap is the Managing Editor and a Research Analyst with over 5 years of experience in crypto, finance, fintech, blockchain, Web3, and AI. He holds a BSc in Mathematics and is certified in blockchain applications and crypto research. Jahnu specializes in technical, on-chain, and fundamental analysis, and closely tracks global macro trends, regulations, lawsuits, and U.S. equities. With a strong analytical background and editorial insight, he leads content that brings clarity and depth to the fast-evolving world of digital finance.