The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket has seen bets totaling over $12 million for Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2025, with most punters eyeing a prime target of $120,000, which has the highest 76% winning chances among all price targets.
The event, which began trading on December 31, 2024, is reflecting growing optimism among crypto investors, fueled by recent market trends and macroeconomic developments. Most of the outcomes on these bets, such as Bitcoin hitting the $1 million price mark and dropping to as low as $20,000, sound unreasonable, but they also have significant volume.
While the $120K mark is currently showing the most likely outcome, a slightly higher $130K is the second most popular, showing 59% chances. Additionally, $150K is also showing notable betting volume with 37% success chances.
On a larger perspective, there is a 2% chance for Bitcoin to hit $1 million, while $250K and $200K targets show 7% and 16%, respectively. Meanwhile, traders are also speculating on a downward trajectory, with $1.164 million in total bets on $70,000, $1.115 million on $50,000, and $280K for $20,000—which is extremely unlikely.
The predictive power on Polymarket has gained a notable credibility after accurately forecasting events like Donald Trump’s 2024 election win. Some recent reports highlighted Polymarket has 94% accuracy in short-term predictions, but those are not foolproof, as seen in their failure to predict the election of Pope Leo XIV earlier this year.
Can Bitcoin surge to $120,000 this year?
Bitcoin’s recent rally, which led it to mark a new all-time high of $111,970 on 22 May, has been bolstered by various factors like the improving regulatory environment in the U.S., the government announcing strategic reserves, and optimism over U.S.-China trade de-escalation.
The forecast from Polymarket currently points to a $110,000–$130,000 range for Bitcoin as the most likely outcome, driven by growing institutional adoption. Yet, regulatory uncertainties and market volatility remain concerns for cautious investors.
Although sounding unreasonable, Polymarket shows a 7% chance for Bitcoin to skyrocket and hit $250K by December 2025, a scenario tied to predictions of hyperinflation by figures like “Rich Dad Poor Dad” author Robert Kiyosaki. While such projections seem speculative, they underscore the fervor surrounding Bitcoin’s potential.
Also read: President Trump’s Truth Social Files for Bitcoin ETF, DJT Stock Jumps
