Citigroup has raised its price target on Strategy Inc. to $240 from $136 while maintaining a Buy rating, according to market summaries of a research note distributed to clients, which was reshared by news and headline sharing channel @DeItaone on X.
The revision follows the bank’s decision to lift its 12-month Bitcoin forecast and incorporates assumptions about both the cryptocurrency’s price path and the multiple investors assigned to Strategy’s net asset value.
Strategy shares have traded near $160 in recent sessions—closing $160.50 on October 1, 2026—so the new target implies roughly 50% upside if the underlying assumptions hold.
The update arrives as Strategy continues to add Bitcoin through its at-the-market equity program and to manage a multi-billion- dollar reserve, details that remain fully public in the company’s SEC filings. Because full research notes are not released publicly, the precise model inputs beyond the headline figures rest on the summaries that circulated after the note’s distribution.
Reported Equity Target and Valuation Framework
Summaries of the Citigroup note indicate that the bank attributes roughly 34% of the modeled upside in Strategy shares to BTC price appreciation and about 16% to an expansion in the multiple of net asset value, or mNAV. The same accounts state that Citigroup raised its BTC yield multiple assumption to 4.0 times from 2.5 times, producing an implied mNAV of approximately 1.24 times, up from 1.065 times previously.
The bank reportedly observed that mNAV has ranged between 1.25 times and 1.50 times over the past year when Bitcoin has held above roughly $85,000 to $90,000, but it applied a more conservative figure because of Strategy’s cash-reserve build, which the note described as dilutive to per-share Bitcoin exposure.
These parameters sit within a longer sequence of target changes. Earlier in 2026 Citigroup had lowered its Strategy target to $136 from $260 after cutting its Bitcoin forecast, while still keeping a Buy rating. The latest move therefore reverses part of that reduction and realigns the equity target with the higher cryptocurrency assumption.
Read: Strategy (MSTR) Stock’s Price Target Debate Comes Down to Bitcoin; Analyst Sees $350
Citi’s Forecasts on Crypto and Recent Bitcoin Moves
The equity revision rests on Citigroup’s updated cryptocurrency outlook. In a note summarized by Reuters on October 1, the bank raised its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $113,000 from $82,000 and its ether forecast to $3,028 from $2,240. Citigroup cited stronger crypto activity, a supportive macroeconomic backdrop, and a resumption of exchange-traded-fund inflows. It expects those inflows to resume at a slower but steadier pace as advisers and brokerages gradually increase Bitcoin allocations, and it projected approximately $5 billion of net inflows over the next 12 months.
Market data from CoinGecko shows Bitcoin and ether have each advanced sharply over the past three months—nearly 40% and 68%, respectively—narrowing their year-to-date losses to about 4% and 9%. The rebound has coincided with a softer dollar after the U.S. Treasury’s recent buyback of longer-dated bonds.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had recorded year-to-date net outflows of roughly $5.7 billion as of mid-July, later turned positive. Citigroup also noted that the Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act narrowed the near-term path to market-structure legislation, yet subsequent Securities and Exchange Commission rule announcements dampened negative sentiment and provided a temporary offset.
Strategy’s Latest Treasury Disclosures
Strategy’s own filings supply the balance-sheet figures against which any equity target is measured. The company’s Form 8-K filed September 28 reports that it purchased 1,665 BTC between September 21 and September 27 at an average price of $85,681, inclusive of fees and expenses. The coins were acquired with net proceeds from sales of Class A common stock.
The company’s aggregate holdings stands at 847,666 BTC as of September 27, acquired for a total of $63.95 billion at an average cost of $75,437. The same filing listed a USD Reserve of approximately $5.02 billion and $1.00 billion in USD cash.
Earlier in the month the company bought 950 BTC for $75.7 million using existing dollar cash rather than new equity, a transaction detailed in reporting on Strategy’s purchase that lifted holdings to 846,000 Bitcoin.
The firm’s management has also continued to repurchase variable-rate preferred shares, directing a portion of ATM proceeds to that use alongside Bitcoin purchases. The pattern is consistent with the Digital Credit framework Strategy has described, under which common equity remains exposed to the Bitcoin holdings while dollar reserves are intended to support preferred dividends and other cash obligations.
With Bitcoin trading near $86,000 in early October, the reported holdings imply a market value above the aggregate purchase cost recorded in the latest 8-K. Whether Strategy shares move toward the $240 level summarized from the Citigroup note will depend on the durability of the Bitcoin price path the bank now assumes, the trajectory of ETF inflows, and the ongoing effect of equity issuance on Bitcoin per share—the variables that both the research summaries and the company’s public filings place at the center of the valuation.
Also read: Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) Surpasses Saudi National Bank in Market Cap
