Strategy Inc. common stock, ticker MSTR, is again being valued on Wall Street less as a software multiple and more as a residual claim on a large bitcoin treasury.
Shares last closed at $142.80 on September 4, 2026, as per Yahoo Finance data. That price sits far below many 12-month research targets published after the company’s second-quarter results, but it also sits far above the most conservative desks.
The spread is not random. It maps almost one-for-one onto each firm’s Bitcoin price path, its treatment of preferred stock and convertible debt, and the premium or discount it assigns to Strategy’s capital-markets platform.
Research targets rest on bitcoin, not software sales
The only widely circulated original broker note that can be read in full without an aggregator is Muriel Siebert & Co.’s August 4, 2026 update. Analyst Brian Vieten reiterated a Buy rating and a $350 price target. The target is explicit: one times “mNAV,” roughly one million BTC on the balance sheet, and a base-case BTC price of $175,000 in the 3Q26–2Q27 window. At the time of that note, MSTR last traded at $98.65—as per historic price data from Investing.com.
That construction is typical of current coverage. Equity research on Strategy generally starts with Bitcoin holdings, subtracts senior claims, applies a multiple to remaining net Bitcoin value, and then adds a smaller software-segment value.
Siebert’s note is useful because it states the assumptions in the open rather than leaving them in a paywalled model. It also restated the 52-week range then in use, $81.81 to $417.01, which already showed how violently the stock has tracked bitcoin.
Other desks have published higher and lower 12-month figures in the same period, but those figures are not reproduced here from secondary recaps. What can be said from primary documents is that any target is a derived number. Change the Bitcoin assumption by 20%, or change the mNAV multiple from 1.0x to 1.3x, and the implied share price moves by a comparable amount. That is why published research has compressed through 2026 as Bitcoin itself compressed. The Siebert $350 case is not a cycle top call. It is a 12-month mark-to-model tied to a specific coin price.
The filings that every model has to digest
Strategy describes itself on its investor relations site as the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, with a remaining enterprise-analytics software business.
The company’s second-quarter 2026 results reported 843,775 Bitcoin as of July 26, 2026, an original cost basis of $63.69 billion, and a then-market value of $54.77 billion at about $64,915 per coin. Year-to-date BTC holdings were up 25%. Management also said it had reduced convertible debt by 18% to $6.7 billion, built a USD Reserve to $3.75 billion at that date—more than two years of preferred-dividend and interest coverage—and recorded an $8.32 billion digital-asset loss for the quarter ended June 30, almost all unrealized.
Read: Michael Saylor’s Strategy ‘Don’t Need’ More Bitcoin, Chooses STRC Buybacks and Cash Reserve
The Form 10-Q for the same period put holdings at 846,000 BTC as of June 30 before subsequent sales under a board-authorized BTC Monetization Program. That program allows BTC sales for three stated purposes: funding a USD Reserve of up to $1.25 billion, covering preferred dividends and interest when management prefers that route to equity issuance, and funding preferred-stock repurchases. The filing is careful: the authorizations do not obligate sales or buybacks.
The latest treasury snapshot is the August 31 Form 8-K. As of August 30, 2026, Strategy held 845,050 BTC. Between August 24 and August 30 it bought 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million, at an average of $80,318 including fees, funded with at-the-market common stock. In the same week it sold 4,531,421 Class A shares for $602.8 million net. Of that, $369.7 million bought bitcoin, $151.8 million retired STRC preferred, $50.7 million paid STRC dividends, and $30.0 million added cash. The USD Reserve stood at $5.10 billion, with a separate $1.61 billion USD cash balance. Remaining ATM capacity was still large, including $19.09 billion of MSTR common.
Those figures explain both the bull case and the caution. Bullish models treat repeated ATM issuance above net asset value, plus preferred issuance, as an engine that can raise bitcoin per residual share over time. Cautious models treat the same ATM as dilution, treat preferred dividends as a hard cash claim, and haircut any premium to net bitcoin value when the common stock trades near or below that value.
Why the same balance sheet produces different prices
On June 29, 2026, Strategy published its Digital Credit Capital Framework, pairing a USD Reserve policy, STRC dividend policy, repurchase authorizations, and the monetization program. The intent, in the company’s own language, is to keep preferred instruments functioning as bitcoin-backed credit while common equity remains the residual claim.
That structure is why research targets diverge even when they use the same 8-K. A desk that assumes bitcoin recovers toward the mid-to-high five figures, and that Strategy can still issue stock or preferreds on terms that add bitcoin per share, will produce a target well above the current quote.
A desk that assumes a lower coin price, a persistent discount to net reserves, or heavier use of bitcoin sales to meet dividends will produce a target near—or even below—the last close. Siebert’s published math sits in the first camp: $175,000 Bitcoin, one million coins, and a 1.0x mNAV—which currently sits at 1.15X, as per official data.
For note, none of those outputs is a guarantee. Bitcoin remains the dominant variable. Convertible notes and several series of perpetual preferred stock sit ahead of common equity. Mark-to-market accounting will keep quarterly earnings volatile whenever the coin moves. The software segment still exists, but it is no longer the valuation driver.
For readers tracking MSTR into late 2026, the useful comparison is not headline target versus headline target. It is each note’s bitcoin assumption, its treatment of the $5.10 billion USD Reserve, and whether it capitalizes Strategy’s issuance platform as an asset or as a dilution risk. Those inputs are in the filings. The $350 figure in the Siebert note is simply one coherent way of multiplying them.
Also read: Capital B Buys 376 BTC While Treasury Sits $80 Million Underwater
