Key Highlights
- Coinbase entered August after gaining 6.76% in July and holding above key support levels.
- COIN has dropped in August for the past three consecutive years, making it a historically weak month.
- The stock remains in consolidation between $152–$155 support and $172–$181 resistance, awaiting a breakout.
Coinbase Stock (COIN) started the month of August in the range of $163-$160 after managing to close the month of July in profit. However, August has not been a friendly month for Coinbase since its listing on April 14, 2021, on the NASDAQ Global Market, meaning the stock could face another important test despite its recent recovery.
As of late July 2026, COIN was trading for $161, representing a 6.76% gain for the month. The stock delivered a solid comeback after June’s weakness, climbing as high as $179 before running into heavy selling at that level.
In short, it’s safe to say July was a steady month for the stock, as it is not about explosive gains and more about stability. Instead of moving sharply in one direction, COIN spent most of the month trading inside a wide price range.
Even its price action confirms a wider consolidation state on the daily timeframe between the $181- $172 resistance level and the $152- $155 support level. Buyers have been trying to push the stock higher, but they have not yet done enough to break through the next major resistance.
This type of price movement usually shows that the market is waiting for a reason to move. That reason could arrive very soon.
History warns that August could be different
While July ended on a positive note, Coinbase’s historical performance suggests traders should remain careful. The month of August has been one of Coinbase’s weakest months since the company became publicly traded.
According to StockAnalysis, the stock dropped 19.28% in August 2023. It fell another 18.27% in August 2024, before losing 19.38% again during August 2025. However, this does not guarantee another decline this year, but they show a clear pattern.
Every August over the last three years has ended in the red, so it’s important for traders to be cautious even after July’s recovery. If Coinbase manages to stay above its recent support levels, it may begin changing that seasonal trend. If selling pressure returns early, investors may once again point to history as a warning sign.
All eyes turn to Coinbase earnings
Coinbase has now reported its financial results for the second quarter, giving investors a better understanding of how the business performed before August began.
The company generated $1.22 billion in revenue during the quarter ended June 30. Revenue declined 14% from the previous quarter and 19% from the same period last year, reflecting weaker activity across the digital asset market.
Coinbase also reported a GAAP net loss of $359 million, extending its streak of quarterly losses to three. However, much of that loss came from accounting items rather than the company’s day-to-day operations.
The results included a $209.5 million non-cash markdown on crypto assets held by Coinbase, a $52.4 million restructuring charge related to layoffs, and $238 million in stock-based compensation.
Even with those charges, the company continued to report positive Adjusted EBITDA of $208 million, showing that its underlying business remained profitable on an adjusted basis.
Another bright spot was market share. Coinbase increased its share of global crypto trading volume to 10.3%, up from 9.1% in the first quarter. That marked another record for the company.
Meanwhile, the achievement came during a challenging period for the industry. Global crypto spot trading volume fell 25% from the previous quarter, while the overall cryptocurrency market lost 11% of its value. In simple terms, Coinbase captured a larger share of trading activity even though the market itself became smaller.
The company also continued to grow revenue outside traditional trading.
Subscription and services revenue reached $555 million, making up 48% of total net revenue.
Coinbase said 88% of its net revenue now comes from businesses other than Bitcoin spot trading, highlighting its push into products such as staking, stablecoins, subscriptions and derivatives.
Wall Street remains divided on COIN
Meanwhile, Wall Street is also split on where Coinbase could head next. Investment firm Rosenblatt remains one of the more optimistic voices.
The company has repeated its Outperform rating and kept its $240 price target for Coinbase. Rosenblatt believes future growth could come from stronger revenue generated by derivatives trading and prediction markets.
At the same time, Rosenblatt also warned that trading volumes across the crypto market could remain soft if investor sentiment stays weak.
Since Coinbase earns a large part of its income from trading activity, slower volumes would continue to weigh on its business even if other products perform well.
JPMorgan, however, sees things differently. The banking giant recently lowered its price target on Coinbase from $283 to $196.
According to JPMorgan, Coinbase’s revenue-sharing agreement with Hyperliquid could reduce the income the company earns from its USDC reserves. That change, the bank believes, could put more pressure on Coinbase’s financial outlook going forward.
Regulation could shape the next move
Meanwhile, regulation remains another important story for Coinbase. Many investors continue to follow the progress of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, which is expected to create clearer rules for the U.S. crypto industry.
Those in support believe the legislation could encourage more retail and institutional investors to enter the crypto market, which could also benefit exchanges like Coinbase.
However, data from the Polymarket prediction market shows a 33% chance that the CLARITY Act will pass before the end of 2026. Aside from that, the Senate still needs enough votes before lawmakers leave for their August recess. Without those votes, the legislation is unlikely to move forward this year.
That uncertainty could continue to affect Coinbase after the excitement around its earnings report settles down.
Prediction markets point to modest gains
Polymarket also offers another interesting view of where Coinbase shares could move next. The prediction market currently gives COIN a 73% chance of reaching $165 during August. This cannot tell the future, but it offers a snapshot of what market participants currently expect based on available information.
When everything is put together, August looks like a month filled with both opportunity and risk.
Technical chart signals remain in focus
Coinbase is currently trading inside what technical analysts call a rising triangle. Buyers have been pushing the stock higher little by little, while sellers continue defending one major resistance level around $172.
Moveover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 44, which shows that momentum is close to neutral but slightly favors buyers. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator has turned positive, and its green histogram bars suggest bullish momentum is slowly building again.
Three possible paths for August
Bullish case
The bullish case depends on Coinbase holding above the $158–$160 support area while delivering a strong earnings report that boosts investor confidence.
A breakout above the key $172 resistance could attract more buyers and confirm the rising triangle pattern. If momentum continues to build, COIN could retest $179 before making a move toward the technical target of $208
Base case
The base case is for Coinbase to continue trading inside its current range for most of August. The stock may move between the $152–$155 support zone and the $175–$181 resistance area as investors react to the factors that could influence the price.
But this reflects the consolidation seen throughout July, with buyers and sellers still waiting for a stronger catalyst before the next major move.
Bearish case
If Coinbase falls below $158, traders may become more nervous. A break below $158 could trigger more selling and push the stock back toward its June 26 low near $139. Another weak August, similar to the declines seen over the past three years, would strengthen the bearish outlook and keep buyers on the sidelines until a new support level is established.
Conclusion
Coinbase is entering the month of August after recovering from June’s weakness and holding above important support levels.
Buyers have regained some control, but they still need to break through major resistance before the market can talk about a stronger rally. At the same time, different factors, including its earnings, as well as Wall Street forecasts and regulatory developments, all have the potential to change the stock’s direction.
For now, the biggest question is whether July’s recovery has enough strength to continue. If Coinbase holds above its key support levels and delivers positive surprises during earnings, the stock could build on its recent momentum.
But if history repeats itself and fresh selling pressure appears during August, traders may once again focus on the lower support zones before expecting another move higher.
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