Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) is back at the center of the Bitcoin-stock debate after the company disclosed that it sold 3,588 BTC for nearly $216 million to fund dividends on its Digital Credit securities.
The sale, reported on July 6, reduced Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves to 843,775 BTC. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said the company also held $2.55 billion in USD reserves as of July 5. The transaction came days after Strategy opened the door to Bitcoin sales under its new capital framework.
The bigger market question now is not whether Strategy sold Bitcoin. That has already happened. The question is what the sale means for MSTR price prediction in July, especially after the stock recently reclaimed the $100 level.
MSTR Price Today: $100 Becomes the First Test
MSTR was recently quoted near $100.77, while Bitcoin traded around $62,088 at the time of writing. Bitcoin’s intraday range was between $61,880 and $63,874, keeping the asset above the important $60,000 level that traders have been watching.
That matters because MSTR is still treated by the market as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. When Bitcoin holds support, MSTR can recover faster than BTC. When Bitcoin breaks lower, MSTR usually absorbs a larger hit because investors also price in debt, preferred dividends, dilution risk, and mNAV pressure.
Before the latest sale disclosure, MSTR had already staged a sharp rebound. The stock closed at $100.77 on July 2 after falling to an intraday low near $81.81 on June 26, according to the earlier July outlook. That made the $100 area the first major level bulls needed to defend.
Now, the Bitcoin sale turns that same level into a confidence test.
Why Strategy’s Bitcoin Sale Matters for MSTR
The sale itself was small relative to Strategy’s total Bitcoin position. Selling 3,588 BTC represents roughly 0.4% of its current 843,775 BTC reserve.
But the signal is larger than the size.
For years, Strategy’s market identity was simple: raise capital, buy Bitcoin, hold Bitcoin. The new framework adds a different possibility. Bitcoin can now be sold to support dividends, liquidity, cash reserves, and buybacks.
That is why the market may treat future BTC sales differently from earlier purchases. A small sale to fund preferred dividends may be manageable. Repeated sales during Bitcoin weakness could raise fresh questions about Strategy’s capital structure.
This is the central tension for MSTR in July. The company still owns one of the largest corporate Bitcoin reserves in the world, but investors now have to price in both upside exposure and the risk that Bitcoin becomes a funding source.
MSTR Price Prediction for July 2026
The near-term MSTR price prediction depends on three levels: $100, $110, and $81.
| MSTR Level | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| $100 | Key psychological support after the July rebound |
| $104–$110 | Near-term breakout zone if buyers absorb the BTC sale news |
| $120–$136 | Recovery zone if Bitcoin holds above $60K and analysts’ lower targets regain attention |
| $93–$95 | First downside area if $100 fails |
| $81–$82 | June low and major support |
| Low $70s | Possible breakdown zone if Bitcoin loses $60K |
Base Case: MSTR Trades Between $93 and $115
The base case is that MSTR remains volatile but does not collapse immediately after the Bitcoin sale.
In this setup, Bitcoin stays above $60,000, the market treats the sale as a liquidity-management move, and MSTR holds near the $100 zone. A move toward $104–$110 would show that buyers are willing to separate the sale from a broader bearish signal.
This is the most balanced July setup because Strategy still has a large BTC reserve, but investor trust is now being tested.
Bull Case: MSTR Reclaims $120 to $136
The bull case needs Bitcoin strength first.
If Bitcoin pushes back toward the mid-$60,000 range and MSTR stays above $100, traders could look for a move toward $120 and then $136. The $136 area also matters because Citigroup’s latest price target listed by Benzinga was $136 after a July 1 update.
A stronger recovery would require two things: Bitcoin holding above $60,000 and investors believing that Strategy’s Bitcoin sales will remain limited rather than becoming a recurring pressure point.
Bear Case: MSTR Loses $100 and Revisits $81
The bear case begins if MSTR loses $100 and Bitcoin falls below $60,000.
A clean breakdown could pull the stock toward $93–$95 first. If selling pressure continues, the June low around $81–$82 becomes the major level to watch. A break below that zone would damage the July rebound and reopen the risk of a move into the low $70s.
This would not require Strategy to sell a large amount of Bitcoin immediately. The market only needs to believe that future sales are becoming more likely.
What Analysts Are Saying About MSTR
Wall Street remains bullish on Strategy, but the range of targets is unusually wide.
MarketBeat lists Strategy with a consensus price target of $278.87, with a high target of $570 and a low target of $54. That spread shows the market is deeply divided on how to value MSTR after Bitcoin’s decline and Strategy’s shift toward active capital management.
StockAnalysis also shows a bullish analyst consensus, with an average 12-month target near $321.
The wide target range matters more than the average. MSTR is no longer being valued only as a software company or only as a Bitcoin holder. It is now being valued as a Bitcoin treasury, preferred-stock issuer, credit vehicle, and capital-management story at the same time.
That makes the stock highly sensitive to Bitcoin price, mNAV, dilution risk, and investor confidence in Saylor’s treasury strategy.
Will MSTR Go Up After Strategy Sold Bitcoin?
MSTR can still go up after the Bitcoin sale, but the path is narrower than before.
The sale does not automatically mean Strategy has lost faith in Bitcoin. The company still holds 843,775 BTC, and the sale was used to fund dividends on its Digital Credit securities. However, it does weaken the old “never sell” narrative and gives bears a cleaner argument against the stock.
For MSTR to go up in July, three things need to happen.
First, Bitcoin must hold above $60,000. Second, MSTR must stay above $100. Third, Strategy must convince investors that Bitcoin sales are part of controlled liquidity management, not the start of a forced-selling cycle.
If those conditions hold, MSTR could recover toward $110 and then $120–$136. If they fail, the stock risks returning toward $81.
Final Take: MSTR Is Now a Confidence Trade
Strategy’s 3,588 BTC sale did not destroy its Bitcoin thesis, but it changed the MSTR price prediction debate.
Before this disclosure, the question was whether Strategy would sell Bitcoin. Now the question is how often it may sell, under what conditions, and whether investors will continue paying a premium for a Bitcoin treasury company that can also use BTC as a funding source.
For July, MSTR’s cleanest setup is this: the stock stays constructive above $100, improves above $110, and turns bearish again if it loses $100 while Bitcoin breaks below $60,000.
MSTR has not confirmed a crash yet. But after Strategy sold Bitcoin, the stock has far less room for narrative weakness.
Also Read: Michael Saylor’s Strategy Liquidates 3,588 Bitcoin Hours After Preaching Bitcoin Supremacy
