Prediction markets have crossed a new milestone, with weekly trading volumes surging past $10.8 billion for the first time, according to data cited by a16z Crypto, based on Artemis figures.
The spike came during a week packed with major global and sporting events such as developments involving SpaceX’s IPO, US–Iran tensions, the NBA Finals, the Stanley Cup Final, and the opening of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. These events helped drive unusually high trading activity across prediction platforms.
The latest figure marks an astronomical shift from early 2025, when weekly volumes typically averaged around $500 million. Trading activity steadily climbed past $1 billion last fall, touched $4 billion over the winter, and hovered between $6 billion and $7 billion in the spring before completely shattering records this week.
Moving into mainstream finance
The rapid expansion in prediction markets has been driven largely by platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi has powered much of the recent volume growth, while Polymarket continues to see strong participation from crypto-native traders.
Prediction markets let users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, ranging from elections and economic data to sports and major global events. Prices on these contracts show how traders collectively assign probabilities to those outcomes in real time.
The growth has also begun to attract traditional finance firms. Charles Schwab has entered the space through S&P 500-linked yes-or-no contracts listed via Cboe. These contracts allow investors to bet on whether the index will finish above or below a set level. Unlike options, they offer a fixed payout if the prediction is correct and expire worthless if it is wrong.
Schwab is also developing a “Plus Zone” feature that would provide partial payouts for near-accurate forecasts, aiming to make derivatives-style products easier for retail investors to understand.
Regulatory pressure grows alongside market expansion
The rapid expansion of prediction markets is now drawing increased scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers in the US.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently approved Novig as a Designated Contract Market, allowing the company to operate a regulated nationwide sports prediction exchange. At the same time, the agency has taken a more assertive stance in court, filing a lawsuit against New Mexico over state-level efforts to regulate federally approved prediction markets. The CFTC argues that oversight of these platforms should remain under federal jurisdiction.
Legal pressure is also building at the state level. Kentucky has sued both Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged sportsbook violations, adding to concerns about how prediction markets should be classified and regulated.
Political participation in these markets has become another flashpoint. Lawmakers have introduced new proposals aimed at limiting involvement by public officials and their families. Representative Bryan Steil has put forward the “Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act,” which seeks to restrict trading in political prediction markets by lawmakers and their relatives.
Despite infrastructure disputes and regulatory fragmentation, the data demonstrates that prediction markets are no longer a niche Web3 subculture; they have cemented themselves as a highly liquid, 24/7 alternative financial layer.
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