A new crypto and prediction market advocacy group backed by Kalshi has entered Washington’s growing battle over the future of federally regulated prediction markets. The organization, called Americans for Fair Markets (AFM), announced its launch on May 22, saying it aims to counter what it described as “false narratives” spread by sportsbook and casino lobbying groups seeking to protect existing gambling monopolies.
According to the announcement, AFM will focus on promoting federal oversight, consumer protections, and clearer regulatory frameworks for prediction markets operating under the supervision of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
AFM targets gaming lobby opposition
The launch highlights the intensifying fight between federally regulated prediction market platforms and the traditional gaming industry, which has increasingly pushed back against the rapid expansion of event-based trading markets.
AFM argued that prediction markets have now evolved into an estimated $500 billion asset class, with millions of Americans actively using such platforms each month. Kalshi also reported a 32x increase in annualized trading volume over the past year.
The organization claimed the industry’s rapid growth has attracted mounting resistance from casino and sportsbook operators concerned about rising competition. The opposition is concrete: the American Gaming Association (AGA), led by former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, has been working to convince state legislators that prediction markets are essentially unregulated gambling. AGA President and CEO Bill Miller testified to Congress that “these so-called prediction markets are deceptively calling sports betting financial contracts and investing.”
“We’re not going to be outspent or out-organized by entrenched interests protecting their monopolies,” said John Bivona, AFM board member and head of government relations at Kalshi. “Millions of Americans have shown they want regulated, open, and fair prediction markets — and we’re going to make sure they have access to them,” he added.
AFM is not replacing the existing industry advocacy infrastructure. It is joining the existing Coalition for Prediction Markets while focusing specifically on campaign-style paid and earned media tactics rather than white-paper-style advocacy.
Congress and regulators tighten oversight
The advocacy push also comes as lawmakers and regulators increase scrutiny of the rapidly expanding prediction market industry.
Recently, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer requested records from Kalshi and Polymarket over concerns tied to insider trading risks, suspicious trading activity, know-your-customer (KYC) controls, and contracts linked to military events.
At the same time, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently backed Kalshi in its escalating legal dispute with the state of Ohio over sports-event contracts. FTC Chair Mike Selig has actively argued in courts across the country that the CFTC should regulate prediction markets as derivatives exchanges — taking authority from states that want to treat them like casinos. The regulator argued that prediction contracts offered by federally regulated exchanges should be treated as derivatives under federal law rather than unlicensed gambling products under state gaming rules.
The dispute has become one of the most closely watched legal battles in the prediction market industry, with broader implications for federal versus state oversight of event-based trading platforms.
Push for federal regulation and consumer protections
AFM said it will advocate for federally regulated onshore exchanges instead of offshore platforms operating without proper KYC protections or legal oversight. Further, it will support stronger CFTC oversight, consumer protections, insider trading restrictions, and bans on prediction markets tied to war, terrorism, death, or assassination.
The group additionally criticized what it described as fragmented state-level gaming laws, arguing that federal supervision provides clearer and more consistent oversight for emerging prediction markets.
Political and legal pressure around prediction markets
The launch occurs during a pivotal regulatory moment for the prediction market industry in the United States.
Earlier this month, lawmakers introduced the bipartisan Gillibrand-McCormick prediction market bill, described by industry participants as the first comprehensive federal framework specifically targeting prediction markets.
AFM also pointed to the recent launch of FairPredicts, a separate organization backed by sportsbook and casino interests that opposes the expansion of prediction markets.
Kalshi continues expanding political influence
The new advocacy push further expands Kalshi’s growing presence in Washington as prediction markets increasingly intersect with politics, finance, and crypto regulation.
AFM announced that Taylor Budowich, who previously served as Deputy White House Chief of Staff under Susie Wiles, will act as a strategic advisor to the organization.
The broader industry push also arrives as prediction markets continue gaining traction across political forecasting, economic events, sports, entertainment, and macroeconomic trading.
The debate has become especially important for crypto-linked prediction platforms as regulators, lawmakers, and gaming operators continue to battle over whether such markets should be treated as financial products, gambling instruments, or a new hybrid asset class altogether.
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