Key Highlights
- Over $2.2B in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire, raising chances of sudden market swings as traders adjust positions.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum show bullish momentum, but traders remain cautious with conservative near-term price expectations.
- Ethereum’s focus shifts to long-term growth, aiming for a decentralized “world computer” beyond short-term network gains.
Traders are quite alert as more than $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire on Deribit, marking the first major derivatives week of the year 2026. This follows record expiry of $27 billion, settled last week on December 26.
As per market data, the open interests for Bitcoin options are concentrated around a few strike prices. The total contracts stand at 256,239, with call options being more at 147,046 compared to the put options, which stand at 109,193. The put-call ratio of 0.74 suggests a bearish market.
The calls are congregated around the levels of $102,000, $112,000, $125,000, and $135,000, which are the strong points for potential calls to be executed. On the flip side, the put options are also present around the range of $70,000 to $85,000, illustrating the hedging activity for potential threats to the downside. The notional value for the above contracts totals approximately $22.95 billion, showing substantial capital exposure.
As per CoinMarketCap, the price of Bitcoin stands at $89,579.09, up by 2.14%, with a trading volume of $25.4 billion. Ethereum is currently trading at $3,054.40, up by 2.56%, with a trading volume of $14.1 billion.
Ethereum options signal optimism
Ethereum options also show the same optimistic trend. With open interest sitting at 1,367,664, it has a total of 837,643 call options and 530,021 put options. The resulting put-call ratio is 0.63, which is a positive indication of the market mood. The major support or protective levels on the put options can be seen around $2,000 – $3,000.
Calls exercise strong dominance, especially around the levels of $5,500 and $6,500, where open interests are close to 100,000. Other areas of interest are as high as $16,000, indicating that some market players are optimistic about the future. The total notional value is around $4.18 billion.
Market probabilities suggest caution
While long-term analysts remain positive, Polymarket prediction markets show conservative expectations. Traders assign only a 21% probability for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 before 2027. Likelihood drops to 15% at $160,000, with single-digit chances for higher levels.
The most likely scenario available right now is Bitcoin touching the $100,000 mark, with a likelihood of 80%. Even touching the previous record highs of around $120,000 is a mere 45% possibility.
Ethereum’s strategic vision
In one of his recent posts, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin emphasized long-term goals for 2026. He wrote that the Ethereum ecosystem achieved major milestones in 2025. He expressed that higher gas limits, improved blob capacity, better node software, and performance gains on zkEVM have already characterized the year.
Buterin highlighted the combination of zkEVMs and PeerDAS as a major step toward a fundamentally new blockchain. He urged the network to focus on being a decentralized “world computer” rather than short-term usage gains. “We’re building decentralized applications that run without fraud, censorship, or third-party interference,” he stated.
The $2.2 billion options expiry could shake up the market as traders make moves to adjust their bets. Bitcoin and Ethereum still look strong, but most traders expect only moderate price changes in the near term.
Also Read: Crypto Losses Take a Dive in December, But $76M Still Vanishes
