A French national wagered over $45 million on Polymarket, betting that Donald Trump will win the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
According to the details shared by Bloomberg, this individual has a background in financial services and extensive trading experience.
The Polymarket also confirmed that the person behind the accounts is responsible for four major accounts, including the largest one named “Fredi9999.” These accounts have collectively invested millions in the market to favor Republican victory on November 5.
This latest bet led to an investigation as it seems intended to skew Trump’s odds in the betting market. A spokesperson for Polymarket stated, “Based on the investigation, we understand that this individual is taking a directional position based on personal views of the election.”
As of Thursday, Trump’s implied probability of winning on Polymarket was 61.1%, a higher figure compared to other platforms like Kalshi, where Trump’s chances stood at 58%, and PredictIt at 57%.
Moreover, some social media users have speculated if high-profile Americans were behind the bets, but Polymarket confirmed the accounts belong to non-Americans.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has previously voiced concerns over election-related betting. CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam said that such activities could “put democracy and elections in jeopardy” and urged Congress to address the issue.
Polymarket itself has faced restrictions from U.S. regulators since 2022 and is not allowed to operate in the U.S. under a settlement with the CFTC.
However, the platform remains one of the most popular prediction markets for the 2024 presidential election, with almost $2.4 billion in trading volume.
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