Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, is currently conducting thorough checks to confirm that significant bettors on its platform are located outside the US.
This action comes in light of a surge in wagers favoring Donald Trump for the upcoming presidential election, amid rising scrutiny over compliance with regulations that prohibit US residents from trading.
One of the most notable accounts, under the username Fredi9999, has made over $18 million in bets on Republican outcomes, with around $13 million specifically on the presidential market. This user has become the largest bettor on Polymarket, raising concerns about the potential for manipulation in these markets.
According to Arkham Intelligence’s confirmation and blockchain analysis by X users, such as FozzyDiablo and Domahhhh, Fredi9999 and three other Polymarket accounts may be controlled by the same person.
The total expenditure across these four accounts on Republican bets has surpassed $43 million, with none of the accounts registered in the US, according to an insider. The Wall Street Journal recently reported on these substantial bets related to Trump.
With more than $2.2 billion in trade activity for this year’s election, New York-based Polymarket is the industry leader in US presidential betting. In contrast to 59% on PredictIt and 60% on Kalshi, Trump’s implied likelihood of victory has increased to 64% on Polymarket according to recent betting trends.
However, in actual voter polls, Trump is trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by a narrow margin, with 49.3% to her 48.5%, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
As the US election approaches, Polymarket has seen a significant surge in trading activity, despite its restrictions on US users. Reports indicate that American traders are still finding ways to access the platform, often using virtual private networks to bypass these restrictions.
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