CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says several analysts remain positive on Strategy (MSTR), even as the Bitcoin treasury company faces possible removal from major MSCI indexes.
The potential removal has raised concerns about billions of dollars in share sales by funds that track those indexes. However, Ju believes investors may already have priced in this risk.
In a Friday, October 16 post on X, Ju pointed to price targets from three Wall Street firms to support his view. Citigroup has set a target of $240 for MSTR, while Barclays has set $175 and B. Riley has set $195.
According to Ju, these targets have generally moved higher rather than lower, suggesting that analysts have maintained their positive outlook despite the concerns surrounding MSCI.
The debate comes as investors assess how much damage a potential index removal could inflict on Strategy’s shares—and whether the risk is as severe as some estimates suggest.
Analysts still see room for growth
JPMorgan analysts previously estimated that removing Strategy from MSCI indexes could lead to about $2.8 billion in selling by funds that track the indexes. The figure could increase to around $8.8 billion if other index providers introduce similar rules, as reported earlier.
These sales would happen because index-tracking funds would need to adjust their holdings to match changes in the indexes. Strategy would not need to sell its Bitcoin for this selling to happen. Instead, the funds could sell MSTR shares they currently hold.
However, Strategy has disputed the expected impact. The company says funds tracking MSCI’s Global Investable Market Indexes hold about 13 million MSTR shares, equal to 3.1% of its basic shares outstanding. Strategy says this amount represents less than one day of its average trading volume.
Ju also pointed to Strategy’s financial position, including its market value compared with the value of its Bitcoin holdings, STRC preferred stock trading close to its stated value and billions of dollars in reserves to help cover dividend payments.
MSCI changes its rules for companies
MSCI announced its new eligibility rules on October 15, 2026, after reviewing a proposal first introduced in August. The rules could affect companies such as Strategy and Japan-based Metaplanet, which hold large amounts of Bitcoin but may have limited assets used in running traditional businesses.
Under the new system, MSCI first checks whether a company has enough assets used to run its business. Companies that fail this first check face five more financial tests covering operating assets, expenses, cash flow, the value of assets outside normal business activities and reliance on outside funding.
A company must fail at least four of these five tests to become ineligible. MSCI has also added a safeguard for companies already in its indexes. They must fail the screening in each of their two most recent annual reporting periods before removal.
Strategy’s removal is not yet certain
MSCI is expected to name the affected companies on November 11, 2026. The changes take effect at the close of November 30, meaning Strategy’s removal has not been confirmed.
Other companies have also raised questions about the new rules. Strive CEO Matt Cole asked MSCI to explain more clearly how it would separate operating assets from other financial holdings, especially for businesses involved in lending and asset management.
“The proposal’s most important term is also its least defined,” Cole wrote in a September 25 submission.
MSCI’s new approach replaces an earlier proposal that specifically targeted companies whose digital assets made up at least 50% of their total assets. The revised rules do not specifically name Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.
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