Key Highlights
- Bitcoin climbed above $65,000, reaching an intraday high of $65,443.39 after reclaiming its 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
- President Donald Trump is expected to meet crypto executives at the White House on Wednesday, alongside senior U.S. financial regulators.
- The Federal Reserve will release its July FOMC meeting minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET, with traders watching for clues on the September rate outlook.
Bitcoin price moved above $65,000 on August 19, gaining 1.05% to trade near $65,362.80 at 10:25 a.m. ET after reaching an intraday high of $65,443.39.
The move pushed Bitcoin above its 20-day SMA at $63,888.28 and 50-day SMA at $63,892.75, breaking through a resistance cluster that had capped price during its recent consolidation.
Bitcoin’s breakout comes ahead of two U.S. catalysts later Wednesday. President Donald Trump is expected to host crypto industry executives at the White House, while the Federal Reserve will publish minutes from its July policy meeting.
Bitcoin Reclaims 20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages
Bitcoin had spent much of the past several sessions trading around the $63,000–$65,000 range before Wednesday’s push placed price back above two closely aligned short-term moving averages.
The 20-day SMA stands at $63,888.28, while the 50-day SMA sits at $63,892.75. Their proximity created a concentrated technical resistance area around $63,900.
BTC breaking and holding above that zone shifts attention toward the 100-day SMA at $66,194.56.
A move through $66,200 would leave the 200-day SMA near $68,976.68 as the next major technical level. A drop back below $63,900, however, would weaken the current breakout structure.
Fed Hike Odds Drop, But Bitcoin Initially Fails to Respond
Bitcoin’s technical breakout follows a week in which the macro backdrop became more supportive for risk assets.
Market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike have fallen from roughly 52% to around 30%–35% over the past week according to data calculated from CME Fed watch. The two-year Treasury yield also eased, while the U.S. Dollar Index softened.
Bitcoin initially failed to follow those moves. BTC dropped from around $65,000 into the low-$63,000 range even as expectations for tighter monetary policy decreased.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, described the reaction to The Crypto Times as an “unusually weak response to a more dovish shift in Fed expectations.”
Lee said geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices were offsetting some of the support Bitcoin would normally receive from softer yields and a weaker dollar.
Oil Near $90 Keeps Inflation Risk in Focus
Brent crude is testing the $90-per-barrel region, adding another variable ahead of the FOMC minutes.
“Historically, the bigger risk has not been briefly crossing $90, but oil remaining above that level long enough to lift inflation expectations,” Lee said.
So far, the market has not shown a comparable increase in longer-term inflation expectations, with the five-year breakeven inflation rate holding around 2.24%.
Oil therefore remains one of the key variables determining whether the recent decline in Treasury yields and the dollar can translate into a more sustained Bitcoin recovery.
“If oil retreats while yields and the dollar remain softer, BTC has room to catch up,” Lee said.
By contrast, persistently high oil prices combined with rising inflation expectations could keep both Bitcoin and Ethereum under pressure despite lower expectations for a September Fed hike.
FOMC Minutes Could Clarify September Rate Debate
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release minutes from its July 28–29 FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday.
The Fed kept its target rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at the July meeting, although three policymakers favored a 25-basis-point hike.
The minutes could provide additional details about how broadly officials were concerned about inflation and whether other committee members were moving closer toward supporting tighter policy.
With September hike expectations already falling sharply over the past week, traders will be watching whether the minutes reinforce the recent repricing or revive concerns that rates may need to remain restrictive for longer.
Trump Crypto Meeting Adds Second Catalyst
Bitcoin traders will also be watching developments from the White House, where President Donald Trump is expected to meet executives from the crypto and financial industries Wednesday.
Executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Chainlink, Kraken, Gemini, a16z, Kalshi, Paradigm and the Digital Chamber are among those expected to participate, while representatives from the NYSE and Nasdaq have also been invited.
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and CFTC Chairman Mike Selig are also expected to attend.
The gathering comes ahead of the inaugural meeting of the CFTC’s 35-member Innovation Advisory Committee, adding a regulatory catalyst to a session already dominated by expectations around the Federal Reserve.
Glassnode Data Shows Conviction Buyers Accumulating Bitcoin
While Bitcoin’s macro response has remained muted, on-chain data shows a different trend developing beneath the price action.
Glassnode said on August 19 that “strong hands are buying BTC,” with conviction buyers increasing their share of Bitcoin supply as profit-taking slows. The analytics firm said the current setup resembles conditions seen during the 2022 market bottom, when supply increasingly moved toward investors with stronger holding conviction.
Glassnode’s investor-behavior data divides circulating Bitcoin supply between momentum buyers, first-time buyers, conviction buyers, loss sellers and profit takers. The latest chart shows the conviction-buyer segment expanding again during Bitcoin’s 2026 decline.
The largest increase in Bitcoin held by conviction buyers occurred when BTC dropped toward $60,000 in January, according to Glassnode.
The trend is consistent with Glassnode’s broader on-chain research from recent months. In July, the firm reported renewed accumulation among long-term holders and other wallet cohorts as investors absorbed supply during price weakness, even while ETF flows remained under pressure.
For the current $65,000 breakout, continued accumulation would provide stronger underlying support if Bitcoin clears the 100-day SMA near $66,194. A renewed increase in profit-taking or loss of conviction-buyer demand would weaken the case that the recent consolidation is developing into a broader bottoming structure.
Bitcoin Price Eyes $66,200 Resistance
Bitcoin’s immediate technical test now sits near the 100-day SMA at $66,194.56.
A sustained move above that level could extend the recovery toward the 200-day moving average near $68,977, while a rejection would leave the recently reclaimed $63,900 moving-average cluster as the first support area.
With Fed expectations turning less hawkish but oil remaining elevated, Wednesday’s FOMC minutes could determine whether Bitcoin’s move above $65,000 develops into a broader breakout or remains another short-term recovery attempt.
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