Cathie Wood-led ARK Invest has put the scale of the artificial-intelligence (AI) boom into perspective, estimating that Anthropic and OpenAI now generate a combined annualized revenue run rate of more than $115 billion, a level ARK says is approaching Microsoft’s roughly $150 billion Productivity and Business Processes segment and has already surpassed what the Windows and Microsoft Office franchises generated decades into their existence.
In its August 17 ARK Disrupt newsletter, ARK said the combined figure is approaching the scale of Microsoft’s Productivity and Business Processes segment. For crypto markets, the comparison matters beyond the size of the AI industry. Anthropic and OpenAI have become part of a growing pre-IPO trading narrative, while Anthropic’s demand for computing infrastructure is creating new business opportunities for Bitcoin miners.
ARK’s $115B AI Revenue Estimate
ARK’s analysis by Research Analyst Jozef Soja puts Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate at more than $74 billion and OpenAI’s at more than $41 billion, taking the combined figure above $115 billion.
The figures are based on estimates from TickerTrends and other similar sources, rather than audited financial statements. ARK’s research cites company disclosures and third-party estimates, including private-market ARR tracking and revenue reports from financial media.
That distinction is important because annualized revenue run rate is not the same as reported annual revenue. It extrapolates recent revenue performance over a full year and can change rapidly as sales accelerate or slow. ARK has also noted differences in how the two companies report revenue. Anthropic’s reported run-rate figures can include revenue generated through cloud distribution partners, while OpenAI’s reporting methodology is not directly identical. That makes a simple combined figure useful as an indicator of scale but not as a directly comparable accounting measure.
ARK’s central comparison is also a historical one. It argues that the two labs’ combined ARR now exceeds the combined trailing-12-month revenue of software giants SAP, Salesforce, and Adobe, and is approaching the annualized run rate of Microsoft’s Productivity and Business Processes segment, the division housing Office and related products, while already exceeding what Windows and the Office suite generated, a franchise that launched more than four decades ago. ARK presented the comparison in a log-scale chart it described as showing a “crossover” point around June 2026. The firm was explicit in its own disclaimer that the chart relies on constructed historical series and analyst assumptions for future years, that it is “for informational purposes only,” and that “forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.”
The Crypto Connection: Pre-IPO Derivatives
The most direct link between ARK’s thesis and crypto markets is the wave of tokenized pre-IPO products that exchanges have launched to let traders bet on these AI labs before they go public. As The Crypto Times has reported, crypto derivatives venues have listed an ANTHROPICUSDT “Pre-IPO Perpetual” contract that recently implied a valuation of around $1.6 trillion for Anthropic, a figure that is itself a leveraged crypto-derivative price reflecting trader sentiment, not an official valuation, and one that does not represent ownership of the company.
Those products exist precisely because of the revenue growth ARK is highlighting: the faster these labs grow, the more demand there is to speculate on their eventual listings. Kraken’s parent, Payward, disclosed in its second-quarter results that it opened tokenized pre-IPO exposure including perpetual futures on Anthropic and OpenAI for clients outside the U.S., and prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi host contracts on IPO timing and pricing.
In effect, ARK’s fundamental case for AI-lab growth is the same narrative underpinning a fast-growing, and highly speculative, corner of crypto trading. Anthropic confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, and both labs are widely reported to be targeting listings that could arrive as soon as this year, though timing remains unconfirmed.
The Compute Connection: AI Money Flows to Bitcoin Miners
The second crypto link is on the supply side of the AI boom. Serving the rapidly expanding products ARK describes requires vast amounts of computing power, and AI labs have been securing it partly by turning to Bitcoin miners, whose power-rich data centers can be repurposed for AI workloads.
Anthropic is a prime example. The company signed a 20-year, roughly $9.1 billion deal to lease AI computing capacity from Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms, an arrangement The Crypto Times covered. Peers including IREN, MARA, Core Scientific, and TeraWulf have pursued similar deals.
The trend is important for crypto markets because it creates a second investment narrative around miners: their value may increasingly depend not only on Bitcoin production and hashrate, but also on their ability to convert power capacity into AI infrastructure revenue.
Why the AI Boom Matters to Crypto
ARK’s revenue estimates therefore connect to crypto markets through two distinct channels. The first is financialization. Crypto exchanges are creating pre-IPO derivatives that allow traders to speculate on valuations for companies such as Anthropic before they become publicly listed. The second is infrastructure. AI companies need power and computing capacity, while Bitcoin miners have spent years building energy-intensive infrastructure that can potentially be repurposed for AI and high-performance computing.
This creates an unusual link between AI-company growth, crypto derivatives, and Bitcoin-mining economics. The connection does not mean that Anthropic or OpenAI are crypto companies. Rather, their expansion is creating new markets and infrastructure demand that increasingly intersect with the digital-asset sector.
ARK’s Estimate Comes With Caveats
ARK’s $115 billion figure should not be treated as combined audited revenue. The estimate is based on annualized run rates and third-party data rather than quarterly financial statements from the two private companies. Run rates can change quickly as customer spending rises or falls. The Binance Anthropic contract also needs to be viewed separately from the underlying company. A pre-IPO perpetual contract reflects trader expectations and leverage, not ownership or a confirmed valuation.
Similarly, the Riot agreement represents a major AI infrastructure opportunity, but its economic impact depends on the implementation and terms of the contract rather than Anthropic’s revenue growth alone. ARK itself cautions that its research uses assumptions and estimates and is intended for informational purposes.
What It Means for Crypto
ARK’s latest estimate highlights how quickly the AI economy is expanding, but its significance for crypto lies in what that growth is creating around it. Anthropic’s potential IPO is already being reflected in crypto-native pre-IPO trading, while the company’s computing requirements are helping accelerate the Bitcoin-mining sector’s shift toward AI infrastructure.
For crypto markets, the result is a broader AI crossover: private-company speculation is moving onto crypto exchanges, while Bitcoin miners are increasingly competing for a role in the AI data-center economy. Whether the revenue estimates or implied private-market valuations ultimately hold remains uncertain. For now, however, the overlap between AI growth and crypto infrastructure is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Also Read: Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest Buys Block, Nvidia & Securitize, Sells Shopify & Palantir
