Key Highlights
- Smart traders on Hyperliquid held $46.8M net short BTC and $20.9M net short ETH
- ETH exchange net outflows reached $49.7M in 24 hours and $164.6M over seven days
- Bitget Wallet’s base case puts Bitcoin at $63,000–$66,000 and Ethereum at $1,800–$1,950
Crypto markets enter the week in a state of cautious optimization. Fresh on-chain data and market analysis show institutional investors and high-net-worth traders taking a two-pronged approach on Bitcoin(BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ahead of the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report: quietly accumulating spot assets particularly ETH while maintaining short derivative hedges against macroeconomic uncertainty.
Lacie Zhang, Research Analyst at Bitget Wallet, said Bitcoin entered the week with improving institutional and large-holder demand but without the broader liquidity expansion that would normally support a clean breakout.
Zhang pointed to elevated Bitcoin dominance and only modest stablecoin supply growth as evidence of capital rotating within crypto rather than entering it. Ether and Solana showed some improvement in spot participation. In her reading, that combination explains why stronger demand has supported Bitcoin without pushing it decisively higher the asset slipped below $64,000 on Tuesday.
The auction calendar sits against the data
Zhang argued the Treasury yield reaction may matter more than the headline inflation number. CPI lands on the morning of Wednesday’s 10-year auction, and PPI arrives Thursday morning ahead of the 30-year auction, leaving room for long-end yields to stay firm even if inflation improves.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected headline July CPI at 3.4% year over year, against 3.5% in June, with core at 2.5% from 2.6%. Kalshi traders priced a 15% chance of a headline reading above 3.4% and an 11% chance of core above 2.5%. The federal funds rate stands at 3.50% to 3.75%, with the next FOMC decision on September 16.
Ethereum on the other hand, left centralized exchanges at a net $164.6 million over the past week and $49.7 million over the past 24 hours, according to Nansen, while smart-money wallets on Hyperliquid carried $20.9 million in net short ETH ahead of exposure into Wednesday’s July CPI release.
Spot flows and derivatives positioning point opposite ways
Jake Kennis, Senior Research Analyst at Nansen, described on-chain positioning ahead of the print as cautiously bullish rather than defensive, with majors being accumulated rather than distributed.
Nansen’s Smart Trader cohort was a net buyer of $2.7 million in ETH over 24 hours across 158 wallets, a pace Kennis put at roughly 7.2 times their average, and $4.6 million over seven days. Whale wallets were mildly net positive on spot ETH, adding about $111.8k over the day and $225.3k over the week.
Derivatives told a different story, on Hyperliquid, smart traders sat net short BTC by $46.8 million and net short ETH by $20.9 million, and wallets Nansen labels as public figures were net short both. Whale wallets were essentially flat on BTC but net long ETH by $36.3 million.
ETF demand ran at $1.1 billion last week
US spot ETFs attracted about $1.1 billion last week, which Kennis called their strongest week since mid-April. Bitcoin products accounted for roughly $853.5 million of that, including about $693.7 million into BlackRock’s IBIT. Ether ETFs added $244.9 million, a fifth consecutive week of inflows.
Kennis said new capital remains concentrated in major assets rather than higher-beta tokens. He also said the largest smart-money net buys over the past seven days were small-cap Solana and BNB names, which he read as a small pickup in small-cap trading activity.
Positioning was not stretched going in
Zhang described funding rates as near-neutral, open interest as flat to soft and liquidations as moderate, conditions she said reduce the risk of a leverage-driven cascade in either direction. Her base case is Bitcoin trading between $63,000 and $66,000 and Ethereum between $1,800 and $1,950 through this window. She said a more durable move higher would require lower yields, continued institutional demand and stronger crypto-native liquidity to align.
Ranges and price expectations cited here are produced by the issuing firms and are not forecasts by The Crypto Times.
Also Read: Crypto Market Down: Bitcoin & Ethereum Prices Drop Ahead of US CPI Data
