Key Highlights
- Up to 911.5 million SpaceX insider shares became eligible for sale today.
- SPCX opened below Wednesday’s close at $107.08, spiked to $115.75, and traded at $110.54 by early afternoon.
- Tokenized SPCX products keep trading after Nasdaq closes, leaving crypto holders exposed to overnight supply news.
SpaceX’s first post-IPO lockup tranche expired Thursday, freeing roughly 20% of restricted insider holdings, close to $100 billion in stock by Morgan Stanley’s estimate, and the stock rose rather than fell.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ: SPCX) traded at $110.54 at 1:12 pm ET Thursday, up 2.10% or $2.28, according to Google Finance data. The session opened at $107.08, below Wednesday’s close of $108.27, then ran to an intraday high of $115.75 — about 7% above the prior close, before giving back most of that move and settling into a $110 range through midday. The session low was $105.11. Market capitalisation stood at roughly $1.46 trillion.
Wednesday’s close followed a decline of almost 14%, which was the stock’s second-worst day on record. The 52-week range of $104.83 to $225.64 leaves SPCX around 51% below its post-IPO high and about 18% under the $135 offering price.
What Unlocked Today
Up to 911.5 million shares became eligible for sale on Thursday, August 6, the first major release since SpaceX’s June 12 IPO. The tranche represents 20% of insiders’ restricted holdings, and Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas estimates nearly $100 billion of stock is now free to trade.
Eligible is not the same as sold. The figure describes how many shares insiders are permitted to sell, not how many will change hands. Thursday’s price action, with the stock holding above the prior close through midday, indicates the market absorbed early supply without a repeat of Wednesday’s decline.
SpaceX structured its lockup as a staggered ladder rather than a single cliff. A further 10% could have been released early had the stock traded at least 30% above the $135 IPO price on five of the 10 sessions preceding first earnings, a condition the stock did not meet.
Smaller tranches continue through October, a second large release follows Q3 results, and the full 180-day block expires December 8, 2026. Elon Musk’s roughly 6.4 billion shares are locked for 366 days until June 12, 2027, with no early-release provision.
Insiders Are Still Deep in Profit at $110
The drawdown from $225 obscures where pre-IPO holders actually sit. SpaceX’s prospectus reported a weighted-average exercise price of $27.65 for outstanding Class A options as of March 31, 2026, and the company repurchased 14 million employee shares for $522 million in 2025, an implied average near $37.29 per share.
At Thursday’s level, those positions carry gross intrinsic value above $70 per share before tax. That gap is the mechanical case for supply: a stock trading below its IPO price is still a multiple of what most insiders paid.
Where Analysts Stand
Sell-side positioning remains well above the current price. As of August 6, MarketBeat data compiled from 39 analyst ratings showed a consensus rating of Moderate Buy on SPCX, with an average 12-month price target of $229.71. Analyst targets are forecasts, not outcomes, and the spread across the coverage universe is wide.
The Crypto Market Trades This After the Bell
The unlock is a Nasdaq-hours event, however SpaceX exposure on-chain is not. Crypto users hold SpaceX risk through several distinct wrappers — tokenized equities such as SPCXx and Backpack Securities’ SPCX, and perpetual futures that track the share price without holding shares at all. Those instruments trade continuously.
Also Read: How to Buy SpaceX Stock (SPCX) on Crypto Exchanges in 2026: Tokenized Shares and Perpetuals
The SpaceX xStock added 25% more holders over a month while volume dropped 31%, with total asset value above $26 million and combined on-chain SpaceX exposure across issuers estimated at $150–200 million. Holder growth alongside falling volume describes a thinner book, not a deeper one.
Disclosures of insider selling typically surface through Form 4 filings and block-trade reporting after the close. Tokenized holders can react to that news; they cannot hedge in the underlying until the next open, and the wrappers carry separate legal structures, different liquidity and independent price discovery. Thursday’s 10-point intraday swing in the underlying is the kind of move that widens those gaps. The Crypto Times flagged this divergence risk when it asked whether SPCX could reclaim $175 as the unlock approached.
The Bitcoin Line Item Now Sits Near a Record Low
SpaceX’s first earnings report disclosed 18,712 BTC worth roughly $1.098 billion as of June 30, against a cost basis of $661 million, an average near $35,300 per coin. Fair-value accounting produced a $539 million non-cash markdown across the first half of 2026, with the position still carrying about $437 million in unrealized gain.
The holding is immaterial to a company of SpaceX’s size. Its significance is that Bitcoin price moves now flow into the reported earnings of one of the largest listed companies in the world, on a stock in active price discovery.
ARK Invest bought $14.3 million of SPCX in late July after an earlier $20.5 million purchase, treating the decline as an entry. Morgan Stanley has argued the disconnect between bearish sentiment and unchanged fundamentals makes current levels attractive.
The test was never whether insiders sell. It is whether the market absorbs it — and one session is not the answer, with further tranches scheduled through October.
Also Read: Can SpaceX Stock Reclaim $175 as August Share Unlock Nears?
