Bitcoin dropped below the key $60,000 psychological level yesterday on June 24, 2026, hitting intraday lows around $59,000 before partially recovering.
The move triggered fresh liquidations in billions of dollars and heightened bearish sentiment, extending a challenging period marked by ETF outflows, hawkish Federal Reserve commentary under new leadership, and investor rotation toward AI-driven equities.
As Bitcoin (BTC) recovered slightly and traded near $61,000 on June 25 amid lingering volatility, Jiang Zhuoer, Founder and CEO of Lebit Mining Pool, has outlined a detailed forecast calling for the current bear market to bottom between October and December 2026 at $42,000–$44,000.
Jiang Zhuoer shared the analysis on X on June 24, combining Bitcoin treasury company Strategy’s mNAV ratio, historical cycle patterns, and a mathematical “bouncing ball” volatility model. The prominent Chinese Bitcoin miner and investor has already positioned accordingly, selling 50% of his ETH spot holdings and maintaining BTC shorts while planning aggressive spot accumulation near the projected low.
The mNAV Ratio: A Leading Sentiment Indicator
At the heart of Zhuoer’s thesis lies Strategy’s mNAV (multiple of Net Asset Value), which gauges how the company’s market capitalization or enterprise value stacks up against its vast Bitcoin treasury (exceeding 847K BTC), adjusted for shares and dilutive securities.
In late June 2026, the diluted mNAV has compressed to roughly 0.72x (sitting at 0.70x at the time of publishing). Sub-1.0x readings indicate equity markets are discounting Bitcoin holdings, signaling peak pessimism among traditional investors who use MSTR for leveraged crypto exposure.
Zhuoer sees this compression, alongside related market signals like depegging events, as evidence of cycle-low sentiment in the equity proxy. Strategy’s valuation often leads spot Bitcoin turns because it reflects quicker reactions from institutional and retail equity participants.
Historical Parallel: The Six-Month Lag Between mNAV and BTC Price Bottoms
Zhuoer highlights a reliable historical lag where mNAV lows precede actual Bitcoin price bottoms. In May 2022, mNAV reached 0.70x with BTC around $29,000–$31,000. The spot low followed six months later in November 2022 at ~$15,476, by which time mNAV had recovered significantly.
Leveraged equity products experience accelerated fear and liquidity crunches, while spot Bitcoin’s final capitulation — involving retail exhaustion, miner selling, and leveraged unwinds — arrives later. This precedent supports a potential BTC bottom in October–December 2026 if June 2026 marks the mNAV trough.
The “Bouncing Ball” Model and Four-Year Halving Cycle
Zhuoer refines his outlook with a “bouncing ball” framework. As Bitcoin’s market cap grows across cycles, percentage volatility declines, producing shallower drawdowns while the four-year halving cadence persists.
Data from prior cycles shows moderating declines. For the current post-2024 halving cycle, the model projects a bottom on October 31, 2026, at $44,016. Incorporating timing reliability and the mNAV lead, Zhuoer targets a $42,000–$44,000 range.
This fits the established pattern: post-halving strength in 2025, followed by 2026 consolidation ahead of the next upcycle.
Strategic Positioning and Macro Headwinds
Aligning with his bearish medium-term view, Zhuoer reduced ETH exposure and stays short BTC, intending to flip long and buy spot aggressively at the forecasted bottom. He cites hawkish Fed signals and the winding down of prior easing as major pressures on risk assets.
A graduate of the University of Science and Technology of China with degrees in computer science and business, Zhuoer built Lebit Pool into a significant mining operation and is recognized for data-driven cycle analysis in Chinese crypto communities. Zhuoer’s forecast carries weight from his multi-cycle experience, but markets remain uncertain.
Also Read: When Will Bitcoin Price Reach New High? Here’s What An Analyst Predicts
