Key Highlights
- Bitcoin is getting close to a key historical support level around $53,600, called the realized price, which has often marked past market bottoms.
- Demand is very weak, with about 652,000 BTC dropping in one week and major ETF outflows, showing fewer buyers in the market.
- The market has not hit panic-selling levels yet, meaning Bitcoin may still need more selling pressure before a real recovery can begin.
Bitcoin (BTC) is moving closer to a key price zone that has often marked the end of major market drops, according to new data from CryptoQuant.
In a report released on Wednesday, the research firm said Bitcoin may be forming a possible bottom near $53,600, a level known as the “realized price,” which represents the average cost that all Bitcoin holders paid for their coins.
The report explained that this level has acted as an important turning point in past bear markets, where prices often stopped falling and slowly began to recover.
At the moment, Bitcoin is holding up above $60K, currently trading for $61,763. This is down just 0.14% within the last 24 hours, suggesting that the price had consolidated throughout the day. The token briefly dropped to $59K on June 6, which is the current low in a week.
That recent fall pushed the market closer to the realized price zone. However, the firm also made it clear that touching this level does not automatically mean a bottom is confirmed.
Why the $53,600 level matters
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said, “Historically, it’s a level that would confirm a bottom (the realized price). It doesn’t mean that we necessarily hit it, but it is still a possibility, especially with bitcoin’s demand weakness.”
In other words, while the realized price remains an important support metric, stronger demand would likely be needed to support a sustained recovery.
Demand shock hits the market
The report pointed out a major problem in the market right now, which is weak demand. CryptoQuant said total Bitcoin demand dropped by about 652,000 BTC in just one week. This includes both futures trading and spot market buying, both of which weakened after Bitcoin slipped below $60,000.
The drop is the largest weekly fall since early 2022 and came after Bitcoin slipped below $60,000, which triggered forced selling and liquidations in futures markets. When this happens, traders are pushed out of positions and selling increases even more, which adds pressure on the price.
ETFs outflows continue
Investors seem to be shifting away from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Instead of bringing steady inflows, these funds have recently seen heavy withdrawals. Almost $2 billion has left Bitcoin ETFs since mid-May, according to Farside Investors, with the market printing outflows since May 18.
CryptoQuant noted that ETF demand growth over the past 30 days has turned negative by around 74,000 BTC, marking the weakest level since U.S. Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024.
No panic selling yet in the market
Despite recent declines, CryptoQuant said the market has not yet exhibited the type of capitulation typically associated with major cycle bottoms.
The firm recorded approximately 187,000 BTC in realized losses over the past 30 days. While elevated, that figure remains well below levels seen during previous market stress events.
That is lower than earlier phases of this same cycle and much smaller than the FTX crash in November 2022, when realized losses hit around 1.2 million BTC.
“The absence of a capitulation-level spike in realized losses indicates that a large cohort of holders is still above water at $59,000, and has not yet reached the psychological threshold of forced or panic selling,” Moreno noted. This suggests many investors are still holding on rather than exiting the market completely.
In previous cycles, major Bitcoin bottoms have only formed after heavy selling and full exhaustion of sellers. During the FTX crash in 2022, Bitcoin briefly fell below its realized price before recovering strongly.
For now, CryptoQuant’s data suggests demand remains weak and buyer participation remains limited, indicating the market may require additional time before a durable recovery can take shape.
Also Read: Fold Cashed Out 634 Bitcoin to Prepare for Its Next Big Push
