Key Highlights
- Only 11.2 million BTC remain in profit (down from nearly 20 million at the cycle peak), while ~43% of supply now sits underwater, signaling deep on-chain pain not seen since the 2022 bear market.
- For the first time this cycle, Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder SOPR has dipped below 1, with diamond-handed investors realizing losses; a classic late-stage capitulation signal as even the strongest hands feel pressure.
- Currently BTC hovers near $66,700, stuck between $65K–$75K with elevated sell-side volume, choppy ETF flows, and limited traditional market support.
As of today, when the market prepares for weekend-closing volatility, the world’s largest cryptocurrency hovered around $66,700, down sharply from the $68,500 level seen earlier this week and trading roughly 47% below its all-time high of $126,198—recorded in October 2025.
The latest slide comes as on-chain data paints a picture of genuine market pain. As per CryptoQuant data, the volume of Bitcoin still held in profit has plunged toward what analysts call the “bottom discovery” zone—levels not seen since the depths of the 2022 bear market.
Roughly 11.2 million BTC are currently in the green, a sharp drop from nearly 20 million at the peak of the previous rally. At the same time, nearly half the supply of around 43% now sits underwater.
The shift brightened with long-term holders, the stoic crowd that usually weathers volatility, have started selling at a loss for the first time in this cycle. Their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dipped below 1, a classic late-stage capitulation signal. Short-term holders are hurting even worse, with some reports showing up to 92% of recent buyers in the red.
Bitcoin price struggling to surge past $70k
Bitcoin’s price action tells the same story, with it being trapped in a grinding range between roughly $65,000 and $75,000 for months now, unable to reclaim momentum after the post-2025 euphoria faded.
This week alone, it swung from above $68,000 down toward $66,000 before a modest recovery, with volume remaining elevated on down days and suggesting forced selling rather than enthusiastic buying. In addition, ETF flows have turned choppy, and broader risk appetite in traditional markets offers little support.
At the time of publishing, BTC was trading near $66,700 with a 24 hour trading volume of $31.6 billion.
To veteran observers, the setup feels familiar. In past cycles, when supply in profit cratered and even diamond-handed investors began realizing losses, selling pressure eventually exhausted itself.
The “pain threshold” — where weak hands are flushed out and stronger buyers step in — has often marked the transition from bearish exhaustion to the early stages of recovery.
Yet, bottoms are rarely clean. Analysts caution that the profit structure hasn’t fully reset to the lows of prior bears, and external factors like macroeconomic policy or institutional flows could prolong the discomfort.
Also read: Bitcoin’s April Test: Negative Coinbase Premium Signals Lingering Weakness
