BTC, ETH, XRP Price Drops: Is the Crypto Market Going to Crash as Iran War Enters Day 28

The cryptocurrency market extended its decline on Thursday, March 26, shedding 2.5% to reach a total valuation of $2.36 trillion as the U.S.-Iran conflict entered its 28th day with no resolution in sight. 

The latest trigger came after Iranian state media reported that officials had rejected a 15-point U.S. proposal to end the conflict, crushing hopes of an imminent ceasefire and deteriorating investor appetite for risk assets across the board.

BTC loses $70K as liquidation cascade hits markets

Bitcoin fell 2.5% to $69,036 at the time of writing, with bulls unable to defend the psychologically critical $70,000 support level. Ethereum was hit harder, dropping 4.4% to $2,066, while XRP slid 3.48% to $1.35, marking a steep 5.17% decline over the past seven days, the worst among the top five assets by market capitalization. 

The total market cap stood at $2.36 trillion, down 2.52%, with the Fear & Greed Index at 30 (Fear) and the average crypto RSI at 42.14, both signaling broad weakness.

The sell-off triggered a wave of forced position closures across derivatives markets. Data from CoinGlass shows that over $193 million in long positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with Ethereum accounting for $75.93 million and Bitcoin for $48.93 million. This follows a turbulent week during which Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran on March 22 triggered over $1 billion in total crypto liquidations, with roughly 85% of the damage hitting long positions.

Oil’s parabolic move keeps crypto under pressure

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes, remained closed for the fourth consecutive day. WTI crude oil surged 2% to $92.32 per barrel, trading well above its 50-day EMA ($76.76), 100-day EMA ($70.25), and 200-day EMA ($67.10), confirming a parabolic breakout structure since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on oil’s daily chart sits at 62.48, dropped from the overbought region during early war days, suggesting room for upside again. Brent crude climbed past $106.

The sustained disruption in global oil flows has stoked inflation fears and pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% stands at 93.8%, while 6.5% of the market now prices in a 25-basis-point rate hike — a scenario virtually unthinkable at the start of 2026. Even gold fell 2.9% to below $4,500, while Asian tech indices, including the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, and KOSPI, all posted losses.

Bitcoin spot ETF flows turn negative post-Fed

Institutional demand for Bitcoin has deteriorated markedly since the Fed’s hawkish March 18 rate decision. Spot Bitcoin ETF flow data shows strong inflows of $300–$400 million per day in early March, but the pattern shifted to consecutive outflows following the rate decision. The most recent days (March 22–25) show mixed, low-conviction flows with small bars alternating between inflows and outflows — reflecting institutional indecision.

Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 hit 89% during the March 19 sell-off, confirming that crypto continues to trade as a high-beta risk asset rather than a safe haven. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded only $95.18 million in net inflows for the entire week prior, signaling a sharp pullback from the institutional enthusiasm seen earlier in the month.

The March 27 convergence: $14B options expiry meets Iran deadline

Friday, March 27 sets up as a potentially pivotal day for crypto markets. Bitcoin options contracts worth $14.16 billion, approximately 40% of total open interest on Deribit, are set to expire at 08:00 UTC. Total crypto options expiring on the day exceed $17 billion.

The max pain level for Bitcoin’s expiry sits at $75,000, roughly 8% above the current spot price. According to the max pain theory, option writers tend to influence the spot price toward this level to minimize payouts, creating a potential gravitational pull upward. “This is a huge expiry, large enough to influence spot prices,” said Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, in an interview with DL News. The put/call ratio sits at 0.63, showing a slight call dominance and an optimistic tilt among options traders.

What makes this expiry unusually significant is that it coincides with the same day Trump set as the deadline for Iran to agree to a ceasefire. A diplomatic breakthrough could trigger a rapid relief rally and amplify the options-driven upward pull toward $75,000. A breakdown in negotiations, however, could flush Bitcoin toward $64,000, the key horizontal support visible on the daily chart, or even lower toward $60,000, a level already tested earlier in this cycle.

CryptoQuant: “Still too early to call a bottom”

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan published a detailed analysis arguing that despite the recent technical rebound, it is “still too early to draw a definitive conclusion that a market bottom has been established.” According to Dan, structural signals indicating a transition from a medium- to long-term downtrend to an uptrend have yet to emerge clearly.

Dan’s 50/100 MA Cross chart on CryptoQuant’s dashboard illustrates the point clearly. The “Bear Start” signal appeared around August 2025 when the moving averages began converging, and the “Bear Confirm” came in November–December 2025 when the death cross completed. Both MA values currently sit below 1.0 (at 0.9914 and 0.9939), with a downward trajectory extending into April–May 2026 and no reversal signal in sight.

Dan noted that while Bitcoin has touched the $60,000 level and some indicators suggest a bottom may be forming, these signals remain at the level of “potential rather than confirmation.” To confidently identify a true market bottom, more consistent and decisive confirmation signals must appear across on-chain metrics, volatility structures, and capital inflow trends.

This aligns with broader CryptoQuant data showing that Bitcoin’s funding rate 30-day percentile has dropped to just 6%, the lowest since early 2023, meaning 94% of the past month saw higher funding rates. Daily average funding shifted from +0.005% in January to -0.004% in March. Exchange reserves have grown to 2.752 million BTC from 2.723 million in mid-January, and the supply-in-profit metric has fallen to levels last seen at the depths of the 2022 bear market. 

CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartun noted that Bitcoin is now 703 days past its April 2024 halving, while past cycle bottoms began forming around day 777, putting a potential bottom roughly two months away, in late May 2026. The firm projects the broader cycle bottom between June and December 2026.

Technical outlook: All three majors below key EMAs

Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is trading at approximately $69,837 on the Binance daily chart, well below its 50-day EMA ($72,081), 100-day EMA ($77,846), and 200-day EMA ($86,066). The MACD has confirmed a bearish crossover with the histogram at -28.11, while the RSI sits at 48.52, slightly below the midline, indicating neutral-to-bearish momentum.

The key range is defined by horizontal support at $64,000 and resistance at $76,000 (the March high). A break below $64,000 would mark a significant structural deterioration.

Ethereum (ETH/USDT) trades near $2,115 (-2.45%), below all three EMAs (50-day at $2,193, 100-day at $2,451, 200-day at $2,786). The descending channel from the $4,000+ highs remains intact. The RSI at 49.68 is dead neutral, while the MACD histogram is marginally positive at 0.794 but flattening, suggesting momentum is stalling. 

Key resistance sits at $2,385, while the $2,000 level remains the critical floor, with a break below it opening a path to $1,733. Analyst platform Finora AI flagged a short bias on the 1-hour chart, expecting ETH to fall toward $2,023 first, with a possible extension to $1,997 if momentum accelerates. The invalidation level sits at $2,147.

XRP/USDT is the weakest of the three technically, trading at $1.382 (-2.26%) on Coinbase, well below the 50-day EMA ($1.482), 100-day EMA ($1.657), and 200-day EMA ($1.920). All three MACD lines are negative and accelerating downward, while the RSI at 44.18 confirms bearish momentum below the midline.

Crypto Lens identified a confirmed double top formation on the daily chart, with price currently testing an ascending trendline from the February lows that coincides with the neckline area. If this support breaks, the chart points toward significantly lower levels. XRP futures open interest has dropped sharply to $2.33 billion from last week’s peak of $2.87 billion, reflecting waning speculative demand.

What comes next

The next 24 hours represent one of the most consequential windows for crypto markets in 2026. The convergence of a record-sized options expiry with a geopolitical deadline creates asymmetric risk in both directions.

If Iran concedes or negotiations resume credibly, a violent short squeeze, fueled by extreme bearish positioning and a 6% funding rate percentile, could propel Bitcoin toward the $75,000 max pain level and beyond. If the diplomatic situation deteriorates further, Bitcoin could test the $64,000 horizontal support while the total crypto market cap approaches the $2.29 trillion level, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement identified as critical support.

As CryptoQuant’s Crypto Dan summarized, until consistent confirmation signals appear across on-chain metrics, volatility structures, and capital inflow trends, it remains difficult to conclusively state that the market has reached its bottom. Any short-term bounce could still end up being a bull trap.

Also Read: Trump’s Script-Flip on Iran Drives Nearly $400M of Liquidation in Crypto

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